MLB spring training has finally begun, and already the narrative machine has kicked into overdrive. It's understandable: Fans have waited through a long, cold winter for baseball's return, and now that their favorite team is back in action, they can't wait to see new faces in new places and who's winning position battles and who is or is not in the best shape of their life.
But for as much stock as we'd like to put into a handful of at-bats in between rounds of golf in Florida and Arizona, how much does spring training actually mean for the baseball that counts? It’s the first time players get back out on the field in a sort of organized action. For players like Tarik Skubal, it’s a way to get back into the groove and flex how good you are. For others, it's a chance to work your way onto the roster.
But what does success in spring training actually mean? Well, according to a recent intrepid Redditor, what you do in the spring has very little to do with regular-season success. Which is ironic, considering how important spring training is for prospects and younger players.
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How serious should teams take spring training if records don’t have any indication on regular season success?
Per that Reddit post, since 2009 less than half of the 15 teams that had the best spring training record of the year reached the playoffs, and two teams with the worst spring training record in a given year reached the playoffs. It only gets slightly better when you look at teams that finished above .500, with eight of the 15 best records doing so and three of the worst 15 records going on to finish above .500.
Of course, no matter whether spring training success dictates how your regular season goes or not, it’s always important to take early season and “preseason”-type games seriously. You can never have enough time to evaluate your talent, especially this early in the year.
Now yes, the baseball season is already long as is. But getting an early look into players is invaluable. So I’d say the importance of spring training comes less with how well your team does and more on how much evaluation you can get before the season begins.
It’s interesting that there’s no correlation between your spring training record and your regular season success. While you aren’t playing your everyday players as much in spring training, it’s certainly an odd occurrence. So for all you baseball fans that get hyped off a strong spring training — we're looking at you, Chicago Cubs fans all excited about your team's 6-0 start to Cactus League olay — I got bad news for you: It means nothing about what your regular season will entail.