The Los Angeles Dodgers have been considered clear-cut favorites to win the 2025 World Series ever since they put the finishing touches on the 2024 Fall Classic. They had the most talented roster last season, and only added to it this offseason. Injuries to their starting rotation, however, could impact whether they can repeat as World Series champions or not.
I get people disregarding this concern, because the Dodgers won it all last season despite a myriad of injuries to their starting staff. With that being said, their rotation is in dire shape right now. This one statistic from Eno Sarris of The Athletic ($) shows just how dire things really are.
"Going into Tuesday’s games, Royals starters had already thrown 46 more innings than Dodgers starters this year. That means Dodgers starters are on pace for a bottom-five innings output of all time, and are going 4.5 innings, on average, while their Royals counterparts are going a full inning deeper in the game," Sarris wrote.
Yes, you read that right: Dodgers starters are on pace for a bottom-five innings output of all-time. Not this season, but ever. They're averaging just 4.5 innings per start, which, even with the increased usage of bullpens in the modern game, is inexplicably low.
They've been winning despite this, as evidenced by their 24-12 record as of this writing, but this has to be a major October concern for Dodgers fans.
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Dodgers rotation struggles could be what haunts them in the postseason
There are a couple of layers to this. First, the Dodgers have no idea who will even be healthy for them in October. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin are all healthy now, but they all have concerning injury track records. Guys like Clayton Kershaw, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow are likely expected to be back at some point this season, but they, too, have extensive injury histories.
Second, and perhaps most importantly, these injury woes add major strain to this Dodgers bullpen. Yes, the Dodgers have as deep and as talented a bullpen as any other team in the Majors, but the 157 innings their bullpen has thrown leads the league, and as the injuries continue to pile on, that gap should only widen.
Alex Vesia and Kirby Yates are tied for the MLB lead with 19 appearances. Tanner Scott is right behind them with 18. Anthony Banda has pitched 17 times. Jack Dreyer has 15 outings in relief. They've all been great for the most part, but how effective will they be in October if they have to be used this often?
There's no disputing that the Dodgers, when healthy, are the favorites to win it all. Even with a banged-up rotation, L.A. should be favored to repeat considering their depth and star power. However, it's hard not to be concerned about the state of their pitching: The injuries have Dodgers fans wondering who can even be relied on to help them in October as a starter, and the strain on the bullpen can conceivably come back to bite them. They're favorites, but again, it's far from a slam dunk due to all of the uncertainty.