The Atlanta Braves are quietly on the ascent, now a game above .500 and five games behind the slumping first-place Mets in the NL East. It has been a challenging season to date for Atlanta, once again marred by injuries and a general offensive malaise, but things are starting to turn a corner.
One of the most propulsive forces behind Atlanta's turnaround has been rookie catcher Drake Baldwin. The 24-year-old has already outshined former All-Star and Gold Glove winner Sean Murphy, who's producing on par with his career-best 2023 campaign. Murphy is an elder statesman in Atlanta's locker room and he's under contract through 2028, so for Baldwin to steal the spotlight is a serious accomplishment.
This Braves team is committed to contending, so Baldwin wouldn't be playing if Atlanta could live without him. But right now, he leads all starters in OPS (.983) and he has five home runs in just 84 at-bats, with 10 runs and 15 RBI for good measure.
Not only is Baldwin's breakout helping Atlanta on the field, it's also helping them restock the pipeline. If Baldwin continues on his current trajectory, he could gift the Braves' front office a shiny new asset.
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Drake Baldwin's breakout comes with draft pick incentive for Braves
According to MLB's new Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI), if a team rosters a rookie for the entire season and he wins Rookie of the Year, that team receives an extra first-round draft pick. That encourages teams to promote and make full use of top prospects, rather than manipulating service time.
Right now, Baldwin is the odds-on favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year, per ESPN. His odds sit at +325 — a comfortable margin over second place's +450, which belongs to fellow Braves rook A.J. Smith-Shawver.
Very little stands in Baldwin's way of the award at this point, aside from Murphy and Atlanta's glut of experienced talent. Baldwin is bound to hit a few bumps in the road eventually, but he has been substantially better than his first-year NL peers at the plate. Even a slight decline shouldn't bump Baldwin too far down the oddsmakers' board, especially with how well-rounded his impact has been.
Baldwin doesn't qualify for the Baseball Savant leaderboard yet, but his hard-hit percentage (61.4) would rank second in MLB, behind only Shohei Ohtani. His metrics page is a wave of bright red. It's all good, everywhere. He's making contact — hard contact — on a regular basis, with a low strikeout rate, which proves how well the young lefty is seeing the baseball.
This is exactly what the Braves needed: a shot in the arm. Last season was dismal. The vibes out of the gate in 2025, when Atlanta began the new campaign 0-8, were not much better. Baldwin has restored life to the offense and given Braves fans a glimpse of the future. He looks, as of now, like a real cornerstone piece next to the likes of Ronald Acuña Jr. and Michael Harris. Alex Anthopoulos is operating on two separate team-building timelines, and with Baldwin mashing like this and Acuña's return on the horizon, it may just work out for him. The extra draft pick won't hurt.