Dylan Cease’s arbitration win won't stop the Padres from trading him

The San Diego Padres and Dylan Cease were able to settle his 2025 salary outside of arbitration, with the NL Cy Young candidate due to receive $13.75 million next season.

At 29 years old, Cease made 33 starts last season and posted a 3.47 ERA, compiling 224 strikeouts across 189.1 innings.

That is incredible value for the cash-strapped Padres, but it does also beg the question: how long will Cease stick around in San Diego? The Padres are eager to cut costs and Cease becomes a free agent ahead of 2026. A trade feels possible, maybe even probable.

There are plenty of contenders who'd sell an arm and a leg, maybe even the kitchen sink, to roster Cease at his current price tag. Even if it's a rental. Of San Diego's movable contracts, none will return value like Cease. He is absolutely essential to San Diego's competitive outlook — the Padres are already without All-Star pitcher Joe Musgrave for the 2025 campaign after he underwent UCL surgery — but if there's a workaround, or if San Diego starts slow out of the gate, Cease will become a centerpiece of the in-season trade market.

Basically, don't let the contract fool you. This is great value for the Padres, and a win for Cease and his reps, but it does not signal a long-term partnership in San Diego.

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Dylan Cease's contract is great value, but it won't keep him in a Padres uniform

Teams who have called San Diego about Cease's availability "haven't been rebuffed entirely," per ESPN's Jeff Passan. The Padres need Cease, of course, but we have seen San Diego sacrifice win-now talent to axe costs in the past. The free agent market for top-line starters is untenable for a lot of front offices right now. Cease, with his combination of age, elite stuff, and impressive durability, could be in line for $200 million-plus next winter with a strong 2025 campaign.

A major determining factor here will be Roki Sasaki. The Padres are pretty clearly toward the front of the line for the 23-year-old Japanese ace. He could see his innings limited out of the gate, but Sasaki will bring an immediately impactful repertoire to the big leagues. Should he chose San Diego — and lock himself into the top of the rotation on a controllable, deeply affordable contract — that gives the Padres a bit more wiggle room to consider trading Cease.

San Diego's payroll is currently projected around $39 million higher than it was a season ago (h/t MLB Trade Rumors). The Padres would prefer to get closer to 2024's number. Cease is not making much relative to his talent, but he is making a healthy chunk of change. Dumping him for several prospects — while propping up Sasaki to lead the rotation moving forward — would put the Padres in a better financial space.

Ideally, the Padres would just pony up, bite the bullet on an expanded payroll, and build a rotation around Cease and Sasaki. We don't live in a perfect world, though, and most teams aren't comfortable spending like the Dodgers. That means San Diego will need to find more creative means to challenge their division foes.