West coast, best coast: Ranking Roki Sasaki’s suitors based on wishlist items

The biggest prize remaining in the free agency pool is 23-year-old Japanese ace Roki Sasaki, who is hailed as one of the best pitching prospects in the world. Since he's not yet eligible for a standard contract, the young fireballer will get paid from a team's international bonus pool, which limits his annual earnings to around $7 million out of the gate.

In theory, that opens the field to every team, as Saski's decision will be rooted in organizational merits, not dollar signs. But, of course, Sasaki is only meeting with a select few teams based on his own personal wish list.

Sasaki is known to covet "stability, lifestyle, comfort, and a player development track record," per Will Sammon of The Athletic. It has also become clear that Sasaki is preferential to the west coast, not unlike Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto before him.

"It'll be a shock if he doesn't land on the West Coast," writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

So, basically, Sasaki wants to go to a sustainable winner and a stable organization — preferably close to the Pacific ocean. Taking that into account, as well as the teams granted a meeting, here are the most likely Sasaki landing spots, ranked.

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6. Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers are recent World Series champs, so it's hard to call them undeserving. Last season was a mess, though, and Texas does not have a particularly strong track record of pitching development.

Between Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom, and Jon Gray, the top of the Rangers' rotation is rapidly aging. Sasaki has ace potential in a vacuum, but it's hard to imagine him feeling motivated to join a rotation on the decline when he'd have far more support elsewhere. Texas is also coming off of a losing season, so the sheen of their 2023 title run has worn off. The Rangers won't win this sweepstakes by convincing Sasaki that he's joining the best team.

Sasaki did grant the Rangers a meeting, though, so there's something there. Perhaps it's the small-ish market compared to the burning spotlight of an LA or New York. Maybe it's the airport hub in Arlington, or the wealth of offensive firepower still present in the Rangers' lineup. But, when push comes to shove, it's hard to imagine Sasaki picking Texas where several teams adhere more strictly to Sasaki's wish list.

5. New York Yankees

The New York Yankees were just in the World Series (pro), but also lost Juan Soto to free agency (con) and tend to feel more volatile than your average contender. Brian Cashman and the front office have made every effort to fill Soto's void, trading for Cody Bellinger and signing Max Fried, but New York's offense famously revolved around the Soto-Judge duo. Frankly, the Yankees often felt a little too reliant on their All-Star pairing.

We should expect New York to take a step back in 2025. The Yankees have great pitching infrastructure with Gerrit Cole and Max Fried, which should allow Sasaki to come along slowly and age into No. 1 billing over time. But, for a player hesitant to embrace the white-hot spotlight of a major media market, the Yankees might not be the best landing spot.

New York also doesn't have the strongest developmental track record when it comes to pitchers. The Yankees tend to buy their way to success, which is fine, but it might not appeal directly to Sasaki. Factor in the east coast of it all, and the Yankees are pretty much left hoping that their unrivaled organizational cachet is enough to woo Sasaki.

4. New York Mets

The New York Mets are clearly committed to contending at the highest level after signing Juan Soto to a record-breaking $765 million contract. If Sasaki wants to look a few years down the road, he can be sure that Steve Cohen is willing to shell out a long-term extension if the 23-year-old lives up to expectations.

That said, New York is on the entirely wrong coast, and the Mets' pitching staff just isn't very strong. Sean Manaea's return is a huge boon, but the Mets are essentially rebuilding from scratch after several free agent departures. Sasaki would end up as a central figure in a huge media market, which isn't necessarily what he wants.

On the other hand, we know the Mets develop pitchers quickly — with Sasaki's fellow countryman, Kodai Senga, a shining example of New York's competence in that department. Pitching behind Senga for the foreseeable future, on a team willing to go the extra mile to field a winner, ought to appeal to Sasaki on some level. We cannot discount the Mets.

3. Chicago Cubs

The success of Japanese stars like Shota Imanaga and Seiya Suzuki could give the Chicago Cubs a puncher's chance, but Chicago isn't the only team with a track record of successful Japanese stars. The Cubs also aren't on the west coast either, which plainly puts them toward the back of the pack.

An offseason trade for Kyle Tucker does establish Chicago, for the time being, as a legitimate contender in the National League. The central division is wide open and the Brewers appear to be waning, which opens the door wide for Craig Counsell's group. It's also worth noting that Counsell has a history of maximizing his pitching staff, last season excluded.

The Cubs are an excellent fit for Sasaki on paper, as he'd be insulated by two All-Stars (Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga) and empowered by a great coach. There are more established contenders in the mix, though, and Chicago just is not on the right coastline. Lake Michigan doesn't count, unfortunately.

2. San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres are polling second in the Sasaki sweepstakes, per Jon Heyman of the NY Post. This is a tremendous fit on paper, as San Diego is a) on the west coast and b) known for quality internal development. The Padres also have an ace up their sleeve in Yu Darvish, who is a mentor figure in Sasaki's life.

A chance to learn first-hand from Darvish for the next few years before taking the reins from a legend ought to be appealing to Sasaki. The Padres aren't short on financial wherewithal either. San Diego's unwillingness to break the bank for Juan Soto or Blake Snell could give Sasaki pause, but there is so much money wrapped up in San Diego's stars, that Sasaki can't feel too worried about a long-term, well-compensated future in a Friars uniform.

San Diego was quietly the second-best team in the National League last season. That is an explosive offense, with two bonafide stars in Dylan Cease and Michael King leading the rotation (although signing Sasaki might increase the odds of a Cease trade). Factor in location, and the Padres have as strong a shot as any team.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

This would categorically suck for 29 of 30 MLB fanbases, but the Los Angeles Dodgers maintain better than 50/50 odds to sign Sasaki, per Jon Heyman. The appeal of LA as a travel hub to Japan, plus winning a bunch of games next to Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, could be enough to sway Sasaki to the most obvious landing spot. There's a reason it has felt like the Dodgers for months.

Los Angeles is more than a heavy spender with a lot of talent and a convenient west coast location, though. The Dodgers are a genuine A-plus organization, boasting a strong farm system and a long track record of internal development to supplement externally acquired stars. There is also the matter of support, as Sasaki would be part of the NL's deepest rotation in LA. Between Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Clayton Kershaw, there would be no shortage of learning opportunities for Sasaki. He also wouldn't face as much pressure due to the wealth of talent around him, even if LA is a huge market with high collective expectations.

So, yeah. The Dodgers lead the pack. It almost feels inevitable. This would only increase the sharp talent disparity between Los Angeles and the next-best team, but anything can happen in baseball, and we all love a villain to root against.