Each NFL team’s updated playoff chances after Week 11
By Lior Lampert
The results of the Week 11 NFL slate have given us clarity.
We're roughly two-thirds into the 2024 regular season, and finally, the playoff picture is coming together. The seven representatives from the NFC and AFC are beginning to separate from the rest of the pack. Some divisions remain wide open and up for grabs, setting up what should be an exciting and competitive stretch run to the campaign. However, the same can't necessarily be said for the Wild Card race outlook.
Below are each team's updated postseason prospects and chances of winning their respective division after Week 11, separated by conference. The former metric is via the league's Next Gen Stats, with the latter percentage coming from ESPN analytics.
Each AFC team's updated playoff chances after Week 11
Team | Playoff Probability | Chances to Win Division |
|---|---|---|
Kansas City Chiefs | >99% | 93% |
Buffalo Bills | >99% | 99% |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 98% | 67% |
Houston Texans | 95%* | 92%* |
Los Angeles Chargers | 91% | 7% |
Baltimore Ravens | 95% | 32% |
Denver Broncos | 67% | <1% |
Indianapolis Colts | 30% | 7% |
Miami Dolphins | 10% | <1% |
Cincinnati Bengals | 10% | <1% |
New York Jets | 2% | <1% |
New England Patriots | <1% | <1% |
Cleveland Browns | <1% | <1% |
Tennessee Titans | 1% | <1% |
Las Vegas Raiders | <1% | <1% |
Jacksonville Jaguars | <1% | <1% |
The Houston Texans' probability is subject to change, depending on the results of their Week 11 Monday Night Football clash with the Dallas Cowboys.
With the Buffalo Bills taking down the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11, the No. 1 seed in the AFC is up for grabs. The outcome of this battle between conference juggernauts might have massive ramifications moving forward, especially with a bye and home-field advantage at stake.
The Pittsburgh Steelers' 18-16 Week 11 victory over the Baltimore Ravens put them in pole position to secure the AFC North crown. But with five more divisional games and matchups with Kansas City and the Philadelphia Eagles on tap, that's far from a guarantee.
Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers boosted their odds of making the playoffs tremendously with impressive Week 11 wins. And suddenly, Kansas City's loss gives the latter an outside shot at stealing the AFC West title from the two-time defending Super Bowl champions.
Each NFC team's updated playoff chances after Week 11
Team | Playoff Probability | Chances to Win Division |
|---|---|---|
Detroit Lions | >99% | 84% |
Philadelphia Eagles | 97% | 83% |
Arizona Cardinals | 64% | 59% |
Atlanta Falcons | 73% | 70% |
Minnesota Vikings | 95% | 11% |
Green Bay Packers | 80% | 5% |
Washington Commanders | 81% | 17% |
Los Angeles Rams | 14% | 11% |
Seattle Seahawks | 21% | 10% |
San Francisco 49ers | 31% | 20% |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 37% | 26% |
Chicago Bears | <1% | <1% |
New Orleans Saints | 4% | 3% |
Dallas Cowboys | 3%* | <1% |
Carolina Panthers | <1% | <1% |
New York Giants | <1% | <1% |
The Cowboys' probability is subject to change, depending on the results of their Week 11 Monday Night Football contest against the Texans.
Overall, the NFC playoff configuration looks much clearer than the AFC. There's a commanding drop-off in playoff probability from the seventh-seeded Washington Commanders and No. 8 Los Angeles Rams. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, that cutoff point presumably marks who's in and out when January rolls around.
Nonetheless, how the seven squads are ordered is a little murkier, considering the NFC West and South are obtainable. With a 2.5-game lead over the second-place Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Atlanta Falcons should prevail in the subsequent division. However, the preceding sector is still for the taking, starting with a pivotal Arizona Cardinals-Seattle Seahawks showdown in Week 12.
Moreover, the reigning NFC champion San Francisco 49ers and Rams can never be counted out. They boast two of the better coaches and quarterbacks in football and have shown they can get hot in a hurry when it matters most.
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