It's hard to believe, but the WNBA playoffs are just around the corner. The season concludes on Thursday night, leaving just three days to determine seeding and, most importantly, the final playoff spot.
With so much at stake here, let's set the scene for what the current shape of playoff battle. Which seeds have been clinched? Which games matter the most this week?
Ahead of Tuesday night's big slate of games, here's what the WNBA playoff race looks like.
What we know: Minnesota is the No. 1 seed
No surprises here. Minnesota has been the best team in the WNBA all season and has already clinched the No. 1 seed and home-court advantage throughout the postseason.
Aces and Dream are fighting for the No. 2 seed, but Phoenix is still alive for the No. 3 seed
The No. 2 seed will probably come down to the Aces and Dream. Atlanta's win over the Valkyries on Monday put the Dream a half-game ahead with just one game left to play, but the Aces hold the tiebreaker, so the Dream will need to win against Connecticut on Wednesday and hope that Vegas loses to either the Sky on Tuesday night or the Sparks on Thursday.
As for Phoenix, the team is 0-3 against Atlanta this year and already has one more loss than the Dream, so the Mercury can't pass the Dream, eliminating them from the race for the No. 2 seed.
However, Phoenix can still land at No. 3. If Phoenix beats the Sparks and Wings this week, the team will finish 29-15. The Aces are currently 28-14, with Vegas holding a 3-1 advantage this season over Phoenix. If Vegas loses out, the Mercury are the No. 3 seed. If Vegas goes 1-1 or better, Phoenix will be locked into the No. 4 seed.
The Liberty are locked into the No. 5 seed
The Liberty have a two-game lead over the Valkyries with two games left for each team. But with the Liberty having won the season series between the two teams, New York will finish as the No. 5 seed no matter what, as their best-case scenario would be winning out while Phoenix loses out, but Phoenix won the season series 3-1 so the Liberty can't pass Phoenix up.
Golden State and Indiana have clinched, but still have seeding at stake
With its loss to Atlanta on Monday, the Valkyries were eliminated from the fight for the No. 5 seed, but they are currently a half-game up on the Indiana Fever for the No. 6 seed and are already the first expansion team to make the playoffs in their debut season.
Indiana has just one game left to play. It comes against the No. 1 seed Minnesota Lynx. If the Fever win that game, they'll be 24-20 on the year. Lose, and they'll be 23-21.
Golden State still has two games remaining, so the team could finish anywhere from 25-19 to 23-21. Golden State holds the tiebreaker, so they'll be ahead of the Fever in most scenarios, unless they lose out and Indiana wins on Tuesday, which would put the Fever a game ahead.
The Storm and Sparks are fighting for the final playoff spot
Finally, we come to the battle for the No. 8 seed.
Seattle is 22-21 and currently in eighth place. The Sparks are 20-22 and currently in ninth place.
Los Angeles won the season series 3-1, so the situation is pretty clear here. If Seattle beats Golden State on Tuesday night, the Storm are heading to the playoffs. If they lose and the Sparks win their next two, the Sparks are the No. 8 seed.
What about tie scenarios for the sixth, seventh and eighth seeds?
Here's where the seeding gets tricky.
We start with the potential for a two-way tie. Indiana was 3-0 against Seattle this season, so a tie there is easy. Indiana is the higher seed.
What about a tie between the Valkyries and Storm, though? That one is trickier.
If the Storm win over Golden State and the Valkyries lose to the Lynx on Thursday while the Fever defeat the Lynx on Tuesday night. That would mean there's a two-way tie between Golden State and Seattle, and the season series would be split 2-2.
Then we go to "better winning percentage against all teams over .500."
Golden State is 10-16 against such teams. Seattle is 9-13. Golden State would drop to 10-18 if they lose out. Seattle would be 10-13. Edge goes to the Storm.
There is one more weird scenario, but it requires certain games to all go a certain way. If the Storm win their final game, they're 23-21. If the Fever lose their final game, they're 23-21. If the Valkyries lose out, they're also 23-21.
A three-way tie goes to the combined head-to-head record against all tied teams.
Team | vs IND | vs SEA | vs GS | Combine Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Fever | N/A | 3-0 | 0-3 | 3-3 |
Storm | 0-3 | N/A | 1-2* | 1-5* |
Valkyries | 3-0 | 2-1* | N/A | 5-1* |
While the Valkyries and Storm still have a game left against each other, a three-way tie would mean that game doesn't matter, as the Valkyries would have, at worst, a 5-2 combined record against the other two teams. So not only does Seattle need to beat the Valkyries to move up to the No. 7 seed, but they need Indiana to win its final game to avoid this three-way scenario.
Sounds complicated? Well, it is, but we'll know a lot more after Tuesday night.