The phrase "wet race" either sparks excitement or terror in the hearts and minds of F1 fans. The recent history of wet racing and the Belgian Grand Prix means usually it's more fear these days. Formula 1 goes racing at Spa-Francorchamps Sunday, with the grid being set in dry conditions Saturday. But eyes have been on the radar all week as to whether intermediate or even wet tires will need to be bolted on during the Belgian Grand Prix.
Drivers, teams take big bets on wet vs. dry conditions
On a weekend with rain possibly in the forecast, teams have to take bets on their setups. At a track with multiple massive full throttle sections, a low downforce setup pays dividends in sectors one and three.
Just ask George Russell, who ran top times in those sectors in qualifying, but then was incredibly off the pace in the much more technical middle sector, which meant he qualified sixth, seven tenths behind Lando Norris on pole.
Sector 1 Time | Sector 2 Time | Sector 3 Time | Overall Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Lando Norris (P1) | 30.005 | 42.579 | 27.978 | 1:40.562 |
George Russell (P6) | 29.761 | 43.642 | 27.857 | 1:41.260 |
F1 rules on sprint weekends mean car setups are locked in for sprint qualifying and remain that way until the end of the sprint. After the sprint, changes could be made again, but from grand prix qualifying on, cars are locked in again for the remainder of the weekend.
So this means, save for minor changes to the wing and tires, teams have already placed their bets. Those who decided to run higher wing setups are hoping the additional grip will help them in the middle sector and in the rain. And those running lower wings hope straight line speed will pay dividends in a dry race.
What is Sunday's forecast looking like?
If there's one thing you learn as an F1 fan is that the forecast we see early in the week never stays that way. Even the forecast from the night before seems to do a 180.
We are not meteorologists, so we'll use two different resources — AccuWeather and The Weather Channel.
The forecast for Francorchamps predicts rain starting around sunrise. AccuWeather says the rain will stop around when the support races will be run for F2 and F3, but TWC says the rain will be continuous from sunrise to sunset.
Where both forecasts agree is rain should occur around the start of the Belgian Grand Prix at 3 p.m. local time. AccuWeather says there is a 65% chance of showers at at 3 and 4 p.m., with still a 35-40% rain chance from 5-6 p.m. local time.
Meanwhile, TWC says rain will be heaviest in the hours before race start, but will be lighter around 3 p.m. local, and will get lighter after that for the remainder of the day.
Here is the hour-by-hour rain chance with AccuWeather and The Weather Channel. Race start times are added, but rain can delay these times.
AccuWeather rain percentage | TWC rain percentage | |
|---|---|---|
8 a.m. (30 mins. before F3 race start) | 65% (showers) | 76% (light rain) |
9 a.m. | 65% (showers) | 64% (light rain) |
10 a.m. (F2 race start) | 50% (cloudy) | 65% (showers) |
11 a.m. | 34% (cloudy) | 80% (showers) |
12 p.m. | 34% (cloudy) | 71% (showers) |
1 p.m. | 40% (cloudy) | 68% (showers) |
2 p.m. | 50% (cloudy) | 65% (showers) |
3 p.m. (F1 race start) | 65% (showers) | 48% (showers) |
4 p.m. | 65% (showers) | 56% (showers) |
5 p.m. | 40% (cloudy) | 62% (showers) |
6 p.m. | 35% (cloudy) | 52% (showers) |
Rain a triggering thought for F1 fans at Spa
The current generation of F1 cars make a ton of spray, meaning we see a lot of safety cars and red flags once rain gets heavy enough.
The lack of visibility means we rarely even see the full wet tires these days before a stoppage happens.
The prime example of rain stopping race played out at the 2021 Belgian Grand Prix, which never went green. Instead, the race went two laps behind the safety car and was called off, awarding half-points.
It was a marathon of waiting for F1 fans that still brings back reminders of how much rain can hold back racing at a track like Spa.