Falcons playoff scenarios: What does Atlanta need in Week 18 to get in?

For a moment, the Atlanta Falcons appeared to be headed for a win-and-in scenario heading into their regular-season finale against the Carolina Panthers. Suddenly, their path to the 2024 NFC South crown and a playoff berth feels like a long shot.

A defensive pass interference penalty put the Falcons in a position to beat the Washington Commanders in primetime in Week 17 as time expired. Alas, Atlanta kicker Riley Patterson came up well short on what would've been the game-winning boot.

Patterson's miss at the end of regulation yielded overtime, though the Falcons never got another possession. Washington won the coin toss and elected to receive the ball to begin the extra session, and the rest is history. Commanders rookie standout quarterback Jayden Daniels led a 12-play, 70-yard touchdown drive that shattered Atlanta's hopes.

With their postseason prospects on the line, Atlanta fell short versus the Commanders despite an impressive fourth-quarter comeback effort. However, they can still sneak into the NFL's annual single-game elimination tournament, depending on how they and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers fare in Week 18.

The Falcons have faced greater odds this season, especially once they benched Kirk Cousins just a few weeks ago. Few would have blamed Penix Jr. for struggling in his first few games at the NFL level, but instead he has thrived. While a postseason berth is unlikely given the opponents Atlanta and Tampa Bay face in Week 18, it is not impossible.

Falcons playoff scenarios: What does Atlanta need in Week 18 to get in?

The Falcons' unfortunate and devasting loss puts them in a predicament, as they fall to 8-8 and second place in their division (behind the Buccaneers). Conversely, Washington's victory secured them the NFC's third and final Wild Card spot, further complicating matters for Atlanta.

Even if Atlanta handles business in their home matchup with the Panthers, they must pray on Tampa Bay's downfall. The Falcons need their fellow NFC South foe, the skeleton New Orleans Saints, to upset the Bucs.

A Wild Card bid is mathematically out of the question for the Falcons and Bucs. Given the circumstances, an NFC South title is their only path to the playoffs. Notably, Atlanta holds the head-to-head tiebreaker since they swept Tampa Bay in their two meetings this year. Nevertheless, the latter is in pole position following the Week 17 results.

Per ESPN Bet, the Bucs are currently listed as 13.5-point favorites over the Saints for their upcoming clash. This indicates the Falcons will need a miracle to overcome their crushing defeat at the hands of the Commanders. Atlanta still has a chance, but they cost themselves tremendously by falling short in Washington.

Who would the Falcons face in the NFC Playoffs?

If the Falcons do make the playoffs, they would face either the Minnesota Vikings or Detroit Lions. The good news about that game is that it would be a home game for Atlanta, as the only way they can make the postseason is by winning the NFC South. The bad news is that the Lions and Vikings have 14 wins apiece, with the winner of Sunday night's game securing the NFC North and No. 1 seed in the conference. The loser of that game will rightly feel slighted, as either Detroit or Minnesota will get screwed over by the league's archaic seeding structure.

Still, a home postseason game is always worth playing for, and would mark a tremendous start to the Penix Jr. era.