Fantasy Football 2024: Crucial start/sit decisions for Week 13

Welcome to Week 13. The turkey has been stuffed down your gullet and the dishes are piled precariously in the sink, waiting. You and I are researching our fantasy football teams and drinking some egg nog with extra nog. Welcome to some relaxing fantasy football words to help you set your lineups.

If you’d like to take my advice, it won’t be hard to transfer these thoughts into lineup decisions. To give me a baseline, I’ll use FantasyPros PPR Expert Consensus Rankings rankings as my guide. 

Crucial start/sit decisions for Week 13

​​QBs I like more than consensus

C.J. Stroud, Texans at Jaguars

Stroud is not living up to his rookie season, but a fully healthy Nico Collins and an easy matchup with the Jaguars should help. Last week, despite throwing two interceptions, he threw for 247 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 18 yards to finish QB11 against a very good Titans defense. The Jaguars on the other hand are in competition for the worst defense in the league with the Panthers, as they have the worst pass defense EPA and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

Matthew Stafford, Rams at Saints

Stafford has played well of late, finishing QB8 or better in three of his last five games, along with his last two. The return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua has been a boon for his numbers to be sure.

New Orleans has been okay at stopping teams from scoring through the air, but they've also allowed the third-most passing yards per game at 276. Only the Ravens and Jaguars have allowed more yards, and I expect Stafford and company to raise that number this week.

QBs I like less than consensus

Jameis Winston, Browns at Broncos

Winston is always worth a look in fantasy due to his gunslinging ways, but traveling to Denver to take on the Broncos isn't the best spot to sling your gun around. Denver ranks first in EPA against the pass and fifth-best in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

Geno Smith, Seahawks at Jets

Smith continues to be right on the cusp of startable as he's fallen off a bit after a strong start to the season. But this week I'd send him to the bench, as the Seahawks head to the east coast to take on the Jets. New York has allowed the fewest completions, second fewest touchdown passes, and third fewest passing yards in the league.

RBs I like more than consensus

Bucky Irving, Buccaneers at Panthers

Last week Irving won over the bulk of receiving duties out of the backfield, which was a big coup for his fantasy relevancy. He led the way both as a runner and receiver, but lost some work to Rachaad White and Sean Tucker. We can't just expect a huge workload from Irving, but we can expect a decent one, especially against the Panthers, who are the worst run defense in the league by many accounts. And for fantasy, they are the worst, as they've allowed the most fantasy points to running backs this season.

Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs vs. Raiders

Pacheco is back this week and appears ready to go. With Kareem Hunt playing okay in his absence, they won't have to push Pacheco, but this matchup should give him a decent fantasy result even if he doesn't get a full workload. The last time these two teams met, Hunt had 22 touches and a touchdown, but was inefficient on a per touch basis. Pacheco will be better and if this game is close, which it very well could be, I think the team will rely on Pacheco in big situations.

RBs I like less than consensus

James Conner, Cardinals at Vikings

Conner has played well this season, but last week's game in Seattle was his worst of the year as a runner, as he ran the ball seven times for eight yards. He still managed a few PPR points with five receptions for 41 yards, but this week he'll take on a great Vikings defense that hasn't given up five receptions to any back this season. Minnesota also ranks first in EPA against the running game and third in fantasy points allowed to running backs this year.

Nick Chubb, Browns at Broncos

Chubb isn't his old self and not by a long shot. He's averaging 3 yards per carry whereas his career average is 5.4 yards per carry. He has buoyed his fantasy points with three touchdowns since returning, but those were all short yardage affairs. That keeps him as a flex play, but the Broncos defense doesn't allow too many goal line attempts, having given up just five rushing touchdowns, the fifth-best in the league.

WRs I like more than consensus

Darnell Mooney, Falcons vs. Chargers

Coming off the bye, Mooney looks like he'll be good to go and this game has some sneaky shootout potential. The Chargers pass defense hid behind their run-first offense early in the year, but they've been exposed in the second half of the season. Since Week 8 they've given up the most receiving touchdowns and second-most receiving yards in the league. Get Mooney and Drake London into your lineups.

Michael Pittman, Colts at Patriots

The Colts look like they'll be without their No. 1 receiver, Josh Downs, this weekend. That should boost Michael Pittman up into must start territory. He hasn't been great this season, as he's had some inconsistent quarterback play and a lingering back injury, but he's coming off a good game last week, catching 6-of-7 targets for 96 yards. The Patriots are a good matchup, as they're tenth-worst at allowing fantasy points to wide receivers and rank 30th in EPA against the pass.

WRs I like less than consensus

Cedric Tillman, Browns at Broncos

Tillman has taken a back seat to Jerry Jeudy and others over the last couple games. We've seen him play well and put up good fantasy points, but he's not the first target like we'd hoped after seeing him put up three straight Top-12 wide receiver fantasy games in a row once Jameis Wonston took over. He's still got plenty of upside, but knowing he isn't the No. 1 and playing in Denver against one of the best secondaries in the league is worrisome.

Deebo Samuel, 49ers at Bills

Deebo still has upside, but it hasn't been coming out as often as it has in the past. Since missing Week 3 with an injury, he has finished higher than WR24 just once. Last week with Brandon Allen at the helm, he caught just 1-of-4 passes for 21 yards. He also has just two touchdowns on the season and none since Week 6. And, this game will be in Orchard Park, with temperatures in the 20s, some gusty winds and chance of snow.

The Bills are also strong against the pass, and rank eighth-best in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. If Allen starts, I'm fading Deebo. If Purdy starts, I'd give him a flex spot if you are hurting for playmakers with upside.

TEs I like more than consensus

Cade Otton, Buccaneers at Panthers

Otton didn't fair too well in Mike Evans' first game back, catching one pass for 30 yards. With Evans back we can't expect Otton to have the crazy workload he had without him, but we also can expect more than one reception. This week against the Panthers, he gets the best tight end matchupin the league, as the Panthers have given up the most fantasy points to tight ends this season.

Noah Gray, Chiefs vs. Raiders

Gray isn't going to take over Travis Kelce's spor on the depth chart, but it is all hands on deck in Kansas City as they work to get their offense humming before the playoffs start up. So Gray is going to continue to be a part of the offense, but he's also not going to score two touchdowns a game like he has the last two weeks.

This matchup is strong for the Chiefs tight ends, as the Raiders rank 30th in allowing fantasy points to the position. Gray is risky, but there's no doubt Patrick Mahomes trusts him

TEs I like less than consensus

Zach Ertz, Commanders vs. Titans

The Titans defense has been strong against tight ends this season, ranking seventh-best in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Ertz gets enough work in the red zone that a touchdown isn't out of the question, but I expect the Commanders to have trouble moving the ball against this defense.

Kyle Pitts, Falcons vs. Chargers

Pitts remains an enigma, as he'll hit a few big plays and keep us interested, but then he'll catch one pass for 11 yards. This week he'll get a tough matchup with the Chargers, who have allowed one touchdown to the position and are eigth-best in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.