Fantasy Football 2024: Crucial start/sit decisions for Week 15

Last week in this space we ended up doing pretty well, as Sam Darnold, Rico Dowdle, and Jordan Addison all put up big numbers. Hopefully some of those dudes helped you get into the fantasy playoffs. But now is the time to get those start/sits perfected because we are in the playoffs and it's win or go home. Or in fantasy football's case, win or log off I guess. So, don't log off just yet! Let's go through some of my start and sits for Week 15.

If you’d like to take my advice, it won’t be hard to transfer these thoughts into lineup decisions. To give me a baseline, I’ll use FantasyPros PPR Expert Consensus Rankings rankings as my guide. 

Crucial start/sit decisions for Week 15

​​QBs I like more than consensus

Aaron Rodgers, Jets vs. Jaguars

Rodgers is a lunatic, but that doesn't mean a great matchup and great wide receivers can't help him to some fantasy points. Rodgers has blamed his injuries for his poor play or at least told others to blame his injuries now that he can no longer blame Robert Saleh, Mike Williams, etc... So, when he put up his first 300-yard game in years last week, it follows that maybe he is feeling better. We also saw big games from both Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams, and if those three can get on the same page against the Jaguars awful pass defense, then it's hard to see Rodgers not taking advantage this week.

Justin Herbert, Chargers vs. Buccaneers

This pick has a couple caveats in it, but on the surface, this is a strong matchup for Herbert. The Buccaneers have been one of the best matchups for quarterbacks on the season, as Baker Mayfield and company have consistently moved the ball, putting pressure on the opposition's offense to keep up. And the opposition can often put up fantasy points through the air, as the Bucs pass defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.

Herbert is currently dealing with an ankle injury, which he says isn't as bad as his earlier ankle injury this year. His best wide receiver, Ladd McConkey, is dealing with a couple injuries and missed last week's game. There is no doubt that Herbert needs McConkey out there and I wouldn't start him if McConkey is out. So, if Herbert and McConkey appear ready to go, I love this matchup.

QBs I like less than consensus

Anthony Richardson, Colts at Broncos

The Broncos defense has given up the sixth-fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks and just one rushing touchdown to the position this season. Richardson has mostly shown his fantasy upside when getting into the end zone as a rusher. Now he heads into the mountain air to take on one of the best statistical defenses in the league, as Denver ranks first in EPA against the pass. I wouldn't want to risk starting Richardson in the first week of the fantasy playoffs.

Russell Wilson, Steelers at Eagles

Wilson has played well this season and has even been a fantasy asset at times. Unfortunately, this week is going to be a big test for Wilson and the Steelers offense. First off, they won't have their No. 1 receiver George Pickens, who is dealing with a hamstring injury. Last week without Pickens, Wilson managed to throw two touchdowns against the Browns, but only was able to put together 158 yards passing. The Eagles have given up the third-fewest passing yards and fifth-fewest passing touchdowns on the year.

RBs I like more than consensus

Chuba Hubbard, Panthers vs. Cowboys

Jonathon Brooks unfortunatley suffered another ACL injury last week, which should keep Hubbard as the everydown back to finish out the season. Both of these teams are bad against the run, but the Cowboys have actually taken the "lead" as the worst team against the run in EPA, while the Panthers have moved to second-worst.

Hubbard has had three straight games against tough run defenses in which he finished with fewer than four yards per carry, but he still managed to finish as RB12 and RB8 against the Chiefs and Eagles. That's a miracle unto itself. The last game he had against a poor defense was when he went for 153 yards and a touchdown against the Giants. He is one of my favorite plays this week in a game where the Panthers are actually favorites!

Brian Robinson, Commanders at Saints

Robinson gets a great matchup this week with the Saints. New Orleans has allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns and most yards per carry to running backs on the season. Add in that the Saints offense will be led by either Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler and it's hard to believe they're going to put up a ton of points. The Commanders are 7-point favorites despite being on the road this week, which means we should see a lot of Robinson.

RBs I like less than consensus

Najee Harris, Steelers at Eagles

Harris managed to put up a startable game last week against the Browns despite not seeing one target in the passing game. The Steelers led from the second-quarter on, which helped Harris see 16 carries, including a one-yard rushing touchdown. In Philadelphia this week, I don't expect the underdog Steelers to be able to rest on a lead in the second half. And when the team needed a receiving back last week, it was Jaylen Warren all the way.

James Cook, Bills at Lions

The Lions defense doesn't get the praise their offense does, but it has been great this season, especially against the run. They've given up the second-fewest fantasy points, fourth-fewest yards per carry, and least amount of receptions to running backs this year. This game has the highest over/under of the week and should be close. That means we should see plenty of fantasy points, but that doesn't mean James Cook will get many. Last week in a game where Josh Allen and company put up 42 points, Cook had six carries for 20 yards and two receptions for nine more yards. I expect Allen to throw and run the ball a bunch in this game, as he's the offense. That might leave Cook out in the cold again.

WRs I like more than consensus

DJ Moore, Bears at Vikings

The Bears pass defense gave up 320 yards passing and two touchdowns to Sam Darnold back in Week 12. That lack of defense pushed Caleb Williams to throw the ball a ton, as they were down 24-10 in the fourth quarter. The Bears pass defense has faltered a bit of late and another big Vikings lead for a very hot Darnold could be in the works. Moore ended up with seven receptions for 106 yards and a touchdown in that game and I expect a similar game this week as long as the Vikings offense can get rolling.

DeAndre Hopkins, Chiefs at Browns

The Browns don't give up many receptions to wide receivers, but when they do, they go for an average of over 16 yards! The next worse is the Rams at 14.8 yards per completion. That trouble with deep passing should be good for Hopkins, who has led the team in deep targets since Week 9. Besides that though, he's also getting targeted in the red zone, helping him to four touchdowns in his last six games.

WRs I like less than consensus

DeVonta Smith, Eagles vs. Steelers

I expect this game to be a low-scoring, run-the-ball-into-the-dirt kind of matchup. Both teams have strong pass and run defenses, but the Eagles have a superior rushing offense with Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts. The Steelers won't have George Pickens to open up the field, likely leading to checkdowns and rushing attempts. Both A.J. Brown and Smith will have tough matchups, but Brown could get a little squeaky wheel action due to his complaining about the offense last week. Smith on the other hand remains the No. 2 receiver and his target numbers have not been good, especially when the team goes all in on the run.

Michael Pittman Jr., Colts at Broncos

It looks like Josh Downs will return this week, but even if he doesn't, this is a matchup to leave on the bench. Patrick Surtain has helped shut down No. 1 receivers this year and helped the Broncos to the No. 1 team against the pass in EPA. Add in the fact that Pittman hasn't been his usual self as he's dealt with a back injury, and I'm wary.

TEs I like more than consensus

Jordan Akins, Browns vs. Chiefs

The Browns will most likely be without David Njoku this week, which hurts, but Jordan Akins is a capable backup in a good spot. The Chiefs should get a lead in this one and they are more susceptible to the pass than run anyway. I expect we see Jameis Winston throw the ball a ton once again, and Akins could easily put up good numbers, as Kansas City has been poor against tight ends. On the season, the Chiefs have given up the most receiving yards and the most receptions to the position.

Stone Smartt, Chargers vs. Buccaneers

Smartt probably isn't as good as Akins, but he should have a good opportunity this week if you are really hurting at the position. Will Dissly looks like he'll miss this week after suffering a shoulder injury just before halftime last week against the Chiefs. Smartt then came in and caught three passes for 54 yards in the second half. Yes, the Chiefs are bad against tight ends, but so are the Buccaneers. They've given up the sixth-most receptions, second-most yards, and the eighth-most touchdowns to the position this year.

TEs I like less than consensus

Dalton Kincaid, Bills at Lions

Kincaid should be back this week to take on the Lions, but even with they high over/under, Kincaid has a tough matchup. On the season the Lions have allowed 47 receptions for 418 yards and two touchdowns to tight ends through 13 games. That adds up to the fewest fantasy points allowed, while Kincaid, before his knee injury, hasn't topped 57 receiving yards on the season and has just two touchdowns.

Sam LaPorta, Lions vs. Bills

The Bills continue to be a tough matchup for tight ends this season. They've allowed the fewest receiving yards per reception, fourth-fewest receiving yards, and the fourth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends on the year. LaPorta has gotten much more work since a brutally slow start, so volume could help him out if the game becomes a shootout, but the matchup is going to be one the Lions offense might want to downplay this week.