3 NFL trade deadline deals that should terrify fantasy football managers in 2024
By Lior Lampert
The NFL's 2024 trade deadline has officially come and gone.
Several familiar faces have changed locations, which will reshape the outlook of the season as we know it. Teams around the league elected to throw the towel in on the year and sell off parts. Conversely, contending front offices took a more aggressive approach to bolster their Super Bowl odds. Nevertheless, multiple transactions impacted the fantasy football landscape — for better or worse.
Below, we highlighted three deadline deals that should alarm fantasy managers. While you may have been counting on some of the players mentioned to be a factor in your lineup, their new surroundings alter things.
3. Jonathan Mingo might harm ancillary Cowboys pass-catchers' fantasy value
The Dallas Cowboys have caught immense flak for sending a fourth-round pick to the Carolina Panthers for wide receiver Jonathan Mingo. Regardless of your thoughts about the 2023 second-round bust, this was a head-scratching deal.
Dallas was conceivably bidding against themselves for Mingo, making the outgoing trade compensation rather jarring. Despite the public criticism, the Cowboys demonstrably have faith in the 23-year-old. Seeing the organization's confidence in a reclamation projection is nice, but fantasy managers who roster Jake Ferguson and Jalen Tolbert can't be thrilled.
Mingo isn't a threat to All-Pro wideout CeeDee Lamb, of course. But Dallas' ancillary pass-catchers like Ferguson and Tolbert could cede work to Mingo. While the ex-Panther won't siphon too many targets from the latter two players, he may do enough to render them borderline unplayable.
Cowboys owner/general manager Jerry Jones sounded unreasonably excited about Mingo's arrival. Combine that with quarterback Dak Prescott facing an injured reserve stint, and it's enough to deter managers from trusting Tolbert. The leaguewide state of the tight end might keep Ferguson in the top-12 positional ranks, though his upside and floor are slightly capped.
2. It's hard to think of a much worse landing spot for Diontae Johnson than the Ravens
From a real-life perspective, Diontae Johnson's return to the AFC North as a member of the Baltimore Ravens is a marquee addition. Nonetheless, from a fantasy standpoint, there may not have been a worse destination for him to end up at.
Not only does Baltimore crush Johnson's fantasy value, but his presence also knocks fellow Ravens pass-catchers.
The Ravens are the third run-heaviest squad in football. Unsurprisingly, their offense relies on their superstar backfield duo, Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, moving the ball with their legs. Based on how successful that approach has been for Baltimore thus far this season, it will presumably remain that way moving forward.
Adding another high-profile mouth to feed like Johnson in Baltimore’s aerial attack complicates matters and makes the entire pass-catching group more volatile. Zay Flowers has been posting fringe PPR WR2 numbers thanks to commanding a massive 27.7% target share in a low-volume passing offense. The former was drawing looks at a similar rate with the Panthers.
Moreover, tight end Mark Andrews has shown signs of life in recent weeks after a dormant start to the 2024 campaign. Notably, his resurgence has been mostly because of maximizing his low-usage role and positive touchdown regression.
Even sticking with the Panthers may have been better for Johnson. At least he was locked into a sizable role as the team's unquestioned alpha receiver in Carolina. The 28-year-old needs an efficiency/end zone spike to produce WR3/FLEX value with the Ravens.
While Johnson, Flowers and Andrews have the talent to counteract their anticipated volume reduction, they'll be harder to bank on in fantasy lineups.
1. Bengals acquiring Khalil Herbert dampers Chase Brown's fantasy RB1 upside
Managers have patiently waited for Chase Brown to take over the Cincinnati Bengals backfield. And finally, in Week 9, they got everything they could've hoped for and then some. However, the team's acquisition of veteran running back Khalil Herbert from the Chicago Bears complicates matters.
Without Zack Moss, who was out due to a neck injury, Brown had a monster performance in Cincy's blowout win over the Las Vegas Raiders. He racked up 32 touches, yielding 157 scrimmage yards, five receptions and a touchdown on an 80 percent snap share rate. His 26.7 PPR points resulted in an overall RB4 weekly finish. Alas, this tantalizing bell-cow role will ostensibly be short-lived following Herbert's arrival.
Per NFL Network's Mike Garafolo, Moss will miss "at least the rest of the regular season," leading to Cincinnati's move for Herbert. The Bengals are telling us with their actions that they don't want to overload Brown, an undersized back. Virtually, head coach Zac Taylor confirmed that notion with recent comments, expressing a desire to have "another guy" to spell their starter:
Considering Brown suffered a bruised rib during his career day versus the Raiders, perhaps Taylor and the Bengals are right to reduce his usage. Yet, his path to weekly RB1 status was taken away from us as quickly as it was given.
Brown may dominate opportunities early on while Herbert gets settled into the Bengals offense. Still, once the latter gets up to speed, it's fair to expect a reasonable divvy of touches.