So this is a thing now? The fact that Nico Iamaleava might actually leave Tennessee in the spring transfer portal window is beyond me. If he does leave a borderline College Football Playoff lock for more NIL money, we are truly living in a simulation. Iamaleava is making below-market value for his services. He is making well under $3 million annually, while Carson Beck and Darian Mensah are both above that.
While I would venture to guess that Tennessee will find a way to make it work, what if Iamaleava does leave? Four other contending teams were recruiting him out of high school. Although I doubt Alabama and Georgia would be serious players for him, Oregon seems intriguing and Ohio State does to some degree. However, Iamaleava's unexpected departure would send shockwaves throughout the sport.
What I want to do now is examine the potential ripple effects this could have on other college teams. I am not looking to put him on a new team in this exercise, but trying to figure out what teams indirectly benefit from his departure. This could be easier matchups with the Vols during the regular season, or one less serious College Football Playoff contender they would have to worry about. This all adds up.
Should Iamaleava leave Tennessee, these 10 programs will be doing cartwheels in the street over it.
10. Iowa State Cyclones
The Iowa State Cyclones make the cut here for one reason and one reason alone: Could the Big 12 get multiple teams into the playoff this fall? I like the Big 12's chances of doing it far more than I do the ACC this season. While I do have the Cyclones as my way-too-early pick to win the Big 12 this year, Matt Campbell's team has never made it in before. Could Tennessee being out of it help them?
There still exists a power void at the top of the Big 12 in the extended wake of Oklahoma and Texas' departure for the SEC this past season. Arizona State took advantage of it more so than even Iowa State did. I think with a seasoned head coach in Campbell and an emerging star at quarterback in Rocco Becht that this could be one of those special seasons for Iowa State football across the board.
Then again, none of it will matter if the Cyclones lose Farmageddon to Kansas State in Dublin Week 0.
9. LSU Tigers
Of course, there were going to be a boatload of SEC teams in this top 10 who would benefit from Iamaleava's theoretical departure from Tennessee. The first of many SEC teams I will touch on is the LSU Tigers. Garrett Nussmeier may be a future top-10 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, but this is the year where Brian Kelly and the Bayou Bengals need to make it happen. Can they get to around 10 wins?
I still do not know if the Tigers can play any defense for Blake Baker, but I would love to see them try. For now, I have LSU as a College Football Playoff dark horse in the SEC, one that could win the entire league just as easily as they could go 8-4. They offer so much variance, which is why I have my reservations with them. Regardless, Tennessee pulling back is good for LSU's chances of getting in.
LSU is the epitome of a high-ceilinged, low-floored SEC team with Nussmeier and Kelly at the helm.
8. Michigan Wolverines
The first of two Big Ten teams I have on here has to be the Michigan Wolverines. Assuming Bryce Underwood is the real deal under center, as well as if Sherrone Moore has finally come to grips that this is his team and no longer Jim Harbaugh's, I would not be shocked if Michigan was fighting for one of the last spots into the College Football Playoff this year. Tennessee taking a hit will only help them.
What this is all about is teams like Michigan jockeying for the presumed seven or eight bids that will inevitably go to the Big Ten and SEC. Indiana took advantage of the SEC cannibalizing itself to some extent in conference play. If Michigan were to make the playoff, they would probably one of the last at-large teams to get in. I see Tennessee with Iamaleava slightly higher than that, but you get my drift.
Michigan feels like a top-16 team in the country, but Tennessee taking a stumble would be clutch!
7. Texas Longhorns
One would think I would have the Texas Longhorns higher than this, but hear me out. For better or worse, I view this year's Texas team as one of four bona-fide locks to make the College Football Playoff, along with Ohio State and Penn State out of the Big Ten, and Clemson out of the ACC. Tennessee pulling back does not help them as much as it would other teams vying for bids in.
However, Tennessee potentially pulling back in the event Iamaleava leaves in them in the dust would do wonders in Texas' chance of getting back to Atlanta. I still have Texas facing Georgia in the SEC Championship for the second year in a row, but effectively removing the Volunteers from the equation only helps the Longhorns on their quest of winning the SEC and getting a first-round bye.
Again, other SEC teams will benefit more from Tennessee being bad than Texas, but they still would.
6. Alabama Crimson Tide
I have Alabama in a similar bucket as LSU in benefiting from a potential Tennessee pullback. The Crimson Tide are probably going to be on the outside looking in at a playoff berth this season, but it will not be by much. It goes without saying, but the biggest reason why I have them a few spots ahead of the Bayou Bengals is an Iamaleava departure makes the Third Saturday in October more winnable.
Right now, that feels like a season-defining game for both teams on their SEC schedules. Whoever wins this one between the Crimson Tide and the Volunteers is probably in the driver's seat to potentially make the expanded playoff, likely as an at-large team. Since Iamaleava is better than whoever the Crimson Tide are rolling out at quarterback for the time being, this would be massive.
Alabama is not a borderline playoff lock, but a Tennessee downgrade would have them in the mix.
5. Arizona State Sun Devils
Even though I have the Iowa State Cyclones winning the Big 12 this season, I would be lying to you if I did not think Arizona State was the far more likely team to make the playoff out of the Big 12. They have tasted playoff glory under Kenny Dillingham. Outside of Cam Skattebo, much of last year's breakthrough team returns to Tempe, including Heisman Trophy candidate quarterback Sam Leavitt.
While I do have both Arizona State and Iowa State making the playoff this year, effectively removing Tennessee from the equation increases the Big 12's chances of getting multiple teams in considerably. It may not be exponentially, but it is substantial. If Clemson is a lock to make it out of the ACC, then I would argue that Arizona State is probably the closest thing the Big 12 has at this time.
For Arizona State, it is all about crossing off teams who could potentially be in the Sun Devils' vicinity.
4. Illinois Fighitng Illini
No team would indirectly benefit from Tennessee losing Iamaleava more than the Illinois Fighting Illini. Many prognosticators have tabbed Bret Bielema's team as this year's Indiana Hoosiers. While I think this unexpected move would help out Curt Cignetti's team quite a bit, this is the year Illinois football has been waiting for. All signs point to them being the fourth best team in the Big Ten this season.
While I would give Luke Altmyer and company a snowball's chance at maybe winning the league, the Illini are probably going to be looking up at Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State in the conference standings at season's end. However, they may have the playoff resume to get in over other contending teams in the Power Four as as-larges. Removing Tennessee from the equation helps!
Illinois is among my favorite teams to potentially make the College Football Playoff for the first time.
3. Florida Gators
We have arrived at Florida. The Gators may have the hardest schedule in the country, but they were playing with a ton of confidence down the stretch under Billy Napier. Yes, they still have to play the likes of Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss and Texas in conference play as well, but if they can get the best of their regional rival Tennessee, that would be huge for them potentially getting in. Can they get to 9-3?
To date, no three-loss team has made the playoff field before. However, I would argue that Florida would stand a reasonable shot at getting in, based on what the Gators would have to navigate this season. While beating Tennessee when the Vols are good would only help them, just beating them in general would be to the Gators' benefit, regardless of if Iamaleava is suiting up for the Vols or not.
Florida is probably not quite good enough to make the playoff this year, but they are trending up.
2. Georgia Bulldogs
Iamaleava leaving Tennessee would be massive for the Georgia Bulldogs. Under Kirby Smart, the Dawgs have largely had the Vols' number, especially since Josh Heupel has taken over in Knoxville. While Georgia is a borderline playoff lock at this point, not having a brutal early-season road game at Neyland while breaking in a new starting quarterback would be to the entire program's advantage.
Yes, this is my alma mater and the team I root for, but I am not expecting for the Dawgs to win in Neyland this year. It is tough spot for Smart and presumably Gunner Stockton to navigate. However, Georgia's absolutely brutal schedule from a year ago is not as bad. The Dawgs do not draw Clemson in the non-conference. They also get Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas at home. Tennessee is the issue...
If Georgia wins 10 games and splits the pair between Tennessee and Texas, they will be playoff locks.
1. South Carolina Gamecocks
I am getting dangerously high on the South Carolina Gamecocks, but for good reason. Shane Beamer is a great head coach when he has a talented team. The combination of Nyck Harbor, LaNorris Sellers and Dylan Stewart has me higher on South Carolina football than ever before, even more so than the peak days under Steve Spurrier. So how does it help the Gamecocks who do not play the Volunteers?
Well, this is all about playoff positioning. At this stage of the offseason, I have four SEC teams getting in: Texas as the SEC champion, Georgia as the SEC runner-up, and Tennesee and South Carolina as two other at-larges. By removing Tennessee from the equation, South Carolina would go from the fourth-best team in the SEC in my estimation up to the third. The SEC will always get three teams in.
The stars are aligning for South Carolina football to potentially have its greatest season of all time.