Upsets happen all the time in sports. As Chris Berman likes to say, that's why they play the game, but even so, there are times when it's clear which teams will be left standing in the end. After one game in each WNBA playoff series, I think we can say with confidence that the Minnesota Lynx and Las Vegas Aces are on a collision course to meet in the WNBA Finals, and there's not a thing any of the other teams can do to stop them.
How can we be so sure after just one game? There are many reasons, some of which have been made clear, and some which were just articulated yesterday.
The Lynx have been the best team in the league from the jump. Whereas some teams that lose on the biggest stage, as the Lynx did in last year's Finals against the Liberty, take a step backwards the following year, the Lynx instead seemed to use it as motivation in tying the WNBA record for regular season wins with 34.
The Lynx were dominant all year, with a 20-2 home record and a .773 winning percentage that likely would have been even higher if they hadn't clinched the No. 1 seed so far in advance. Napheesa Collier backed up winning the first ever Unrivaled MVP this offseason by finished second in the league in points and steals, leading the team to a first-place finish in both offensive and defensive rating.
The Lynx won their first nine games of the season and 17 of their first 19, and 11 of those wins came by double digits. The Golden State Valkyries made WNBA history by becoming the first expansion team to reach the playoffs, but Cheryl Reeve's team was not interested in being a bit player in someone else's fairy tale, and the Lynx whooped Golden State 101-72 in Game 1 of their first-round series on Sunday to take a 1-0 lead.
The Valkyries are now just a game away from elimination, and worse yet, they won't even get to host Game 2 in the Chase Center, aka Ballhalla, due to the unfortunate prior scheduling of tennis' Laver Cup. Instead, the game will be played at San Francisco's SAP Center, blunting the home-court edge the team had so carefully cultivated with the highest average attendance in the league.
The Valkyries have been a great story, but they're no match for the Lynx.
Will anybody be able to keep the Lynx from the Finals?
If and when the Lynx advance past the Valkyries, a potential Finals rematch could await, as the Liberty got off to a 1-0 start by squeezing past the Mercury in overtime. The Liberty actually started out this season just as hot as the Lynx with nine straight wins, but unlike Minnesota, they've been hit hard by the injury bug since then. Jonquel Jones missed 13 games with a sprained ankle, and Breanna Stewart was out just as long with a bone bruise in her right knee. Nyara Sabally barely played half the year due to knee problems of her own. Even Sabrina Ionescu missed a short stretch late in the year with a toe injury.
Liberty head coach Sandy Brondello said before the regular-season finale last week, "I've been in this league for quite some time as a player and a coach, and I don't think I've ever been in this situation with so many players in and out. Especially your key players."
New York finally looked to be healthy as the playoffs began, but Stewart injured her left knee in overtime in yesterday's game in Phoenix, and her prognosis going forward is still unknown. If she isn't able to go, the Liberty will surely miss her. She missed all four games against the Lynx this year, and the Liberty went 1-3. Even if she can give it a go, it's doubtful that she'll be 100 percent.
If the Mercury can come back and win, the Lynx wouldn't mind that either, as they won three of four against them, too.
Will the Aces ever lose again?
Over on the other side of the bracket, the Aces once again look like a juggernaut after scuffling through the early part of the season. Vegas has now won 17 games in a row after destroying the Seattle Storm by 25, with A'ja Wilson dropping in 29 points to continue her torrid pace.
The WNBA record for consecutive wins is 18, set by the 2001 Los Angeles Sparks, and the Aces can unofficially tie that by closing out the Storm in Seattle on Tuesday. These teams split their season series, but the last time the Aces lost to the Storm was in late June, a game that dropped them to 5-7 on the year. Since then, they've gone 25-7, and they only appear to be getting stronger, as their last three wins have been by an average of 28 points.
The Aces won back-to-back titles in 2022 and 2023, and although they're missing Kelsey Plum from those teams, they look just as dominant as ever now. Either the Atlanta Dream or Indiana Fever will be waiting in the second round, and each has a lot to be proud of this year. The Dream easily set the franchise record with 30 wins, and the Fever battled through an avalanche of injuries, including to Caitlin Clark, Sydney Colson, Aari McDonald and Sophie Cunningham, just to reach the postseason.
Neither has the juice to hang with this version of the Aces. Vegas swept the season series from the Dream, and though they lost two of three to the Fever, those games all took place over 50 days ago when the Aces hadn't yet found their footing and the Fever were much healthier.
Who is going to win the WNBA title?
I've been riding the Lynx all year and even put a bet on them early in the season, but I'm not sure that even they'll be able to stop the Aces. A'ja Wilson once again looks like the most unstoppable force in the game, and though the Lynx won the first three matchups this year, including a 31-point and 53-point beatdown within eight days of each other in late July and early August, that final game was the last time the Aces lost. Getting crushed lit a fire under them, and the Lynx won't be able to put it out. This is the first year that the WNBA Finals is a best-of-seven, and I'm picking the Aces to win their third title in four years. Minnesota will put up a fight, but this feels like Aces in six.