Genesis Invitational expert picks 2025: PGA Tour golf predictions and analysis for Torrey Pines

If it feels like we were just at Torrey Pines, that's because we were. However, it's now the new host of the 2025 Genesis Invitational after Riviera was unable to host following the surrounding damage from the LA wildfires sweeping through California in January. This is a major championship caliber venue, though, and an obvious venue for the PGA Tour to move this event to.

Though the course will only be so much different for the Genesis Invitational than it was the Farmers, it does seem as if the rough is now even longer and that the windy, potentially wet conditions will make this a tough test. Throw in the fact that this is already one of the longest courses on the PGA Tour, and you start to see why this could be an intriguing week for this tournament, especially with the money involved in any signature event.

We had a nice week at the WM Phoenix Open with our picks, even if the profit was only marginal. We're taking a couple of bigger swings this week, though, and have a chance to get back into the black with authority. So with that, we're going right into our Genesis Invitational picks with winner predictions, a Top 10 pick, sleepers and more for this week at Torrey Pines.

Golf betting record in 2025: 5-18-0, -6.175 Units (+0.85 Units at Phoenix) | One and Done Total for 2025: $2,675,302 (Maverick McNealy at Phoenix, $250,700)

Note: All lines are courtesy of BetMGM. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Genesis Invitational golf picks to Win, finish Top 10 and One and Done

Pick to win the Genesis Invitational: Rory McIlroy (+700)

Yes, it's square. No, I don't remotely care. I've already mentioned that length should play a big role in success this week at Torrey Pines and Rory McIlroy has a clear advantage in that department. However, two things stood out from his victory at Pebble a couple of weeks ago. First off, his wedge play improved greatly which bore out after gaining 2.49 strokes on approach in the win and 7.09 strokes tee-to-green. Beyond that, his course management was some of the best we've seen from him in years. Now at a venue where he's played four times with three Top 7 finishes and T16 as his worst outing, I love him to continue a torrid start to his 2025 season.

Top 10 pick for the Genesis Invitational: Viktor Hovland (+350)

While I'm harboring a bit of healthy skepticism or at least wait-and-see mentality with my guy Viktor Hovland this season, the reality is that he is showing real signs of life that I'm going to approach with a bit of caution. After losing strokes on approach in his first two events this year, he gained 3.77 en route to a T22 finish at Pebble. Torrey Pines, where Hovland has a T2 on his ledger, is better suited to his ball striking. His erratic and unreliable short game is why I'm not getting more aggressive but I think the odds here are too juicy to pass up for someone with his upside plus the signs of turning things around.

One and Done pick for the Genesis Invitational: Hideki Matsuyama

We won't have any investment in Hideki Matsuyama this week but I love for him to finish well at this week's signature event. He won at Riviera a year ago, but has also been in form, ranking third in SG: Approach, first in SG: Around the Green and sixth in SG: Par 5 over the past 20 rounds. That all fits Torrey Pines quite well and I expect him to have a good showing that results in a nice payday for your One and Done league.

Sleepers to watch at the Genesis Invitational

Top 20 sleeper pick for the Genesis Invitational (0.9 Units): Gary Woodland (+200)

Gary Woodland is the early leader in my personal clubhouse for guy I can't quit this season. He easily cashed a Top 40 sleeper bet last week in Phoenix with a T21 finish and has three starts now all inside the Top 22. His ball-striking has returned back to form from several years aago, gaining at least 5.4 strokes tee-to-green in two of his three starts this year and even dating back to the fall with a T9 at Shriners and T16 at Sanderson Farms. Torrey Pines has been a mixed back but, prior to injuries and his brain surgery, he finished Top 20 four years in a row at Farmers from 2016-19. At +200 to do it again, let me get a piece of that action.

Sleeper to win the Genesis Invitational (0.1 Units): Daniel Berger (+9000, FanDuel)

It hasn't necessarily been consistent but last week at Phoenix was not a mistake for Daniel Berger in his comeback. Dating back to the RSM Classic in November, Berger has gone T2, Cut, T21, Cut, T2. You would like for the missed cuts to not be a thing but he's been absolutely peaking in returning to his ball-striking form, including gaining 11.56 strokes tee-to-green last week. Considering that he also finished T7 at the US Open here in 2021 and then T20 at the Farmers the following year, something big could be coming and I'm willing to sprinkle on that.