Heisman or bust? Arch Manning topped by only one CFB star in 2025 race

It’s Arch Manning time in Austin. Not just because Quinn Ewers is chasing the NFL dream, but because Las Vegas gives Manning the second highest odds to win the Heisman Trophy next season. 

Manning opens up with +950 odds to win the trophy, just slightly behind LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier who has +900 odds to win the Heisman. Will Manning actually put together a Heisman caliber season?

There might not be another player with as high of expectations as Manning. He patiently waited his turn to take over the program. There were several calls for him to take the starting job from Ewers this past season as well. 

Manning doesn’t have the luxury of easing into the Texas offense as the full time starter. Especially with Texas’ national championship expectations and Vegas deeming him one of the best players ahead of next season. 

Heisman or bust: Can Arch Manning lead Texas to glory and win college football’s highest individual award?

This past season, Manning was a utility player that was fortunate enough to get some starts under his belt with Ewers missing time due to injury. In those two starts, he threw for 583 yards with four touchdown passes and two interceptions. 

Though it was against inferior opponents, Manning looked the part. But how will he handle the ebbs and flow of a full season? That remains a mystery. Just like Longhorn fans were ready to be done with Ewers, they could be ready to jettison Manning at the first sign of adversity. 

Manning was always the incumbent to Ewers. And while Ewers was probably forced out of Austin, Manning is the quarterback the fans want. Now he has to appease them. 

Early Heisman odds don’t really mean much, so I wouldn’t put much stock in it. Since at least 2015, the Heisman favorite hasn’t won the award. Which means odds are Nussmeier doesn’t win the award. While that does open the door for Manning, that will be a tall task. 

And based off what it took for the last few quarterbacks to win the award, Manning would have to lead Texas to a remarkable season or have indisputable stats. This past season, stats was just part of the story. 

While Ashton Jeanty’s numbers ran circles around Travis Hunter, his ability to impact the game in multiple ways was the biggest factor. If Manning wants the Heisman Trophy, he’ll have to be just as dangerous as a runner as well as a passer.