History says Pacers odds still tight after Haliburton's Finals game winner

Indiana Pacers point guard and human manifestation of destiny Tyrese Haliburton did it again, sinking a game-winning jumper with 0.3 seconds on the clock to stun the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. He continues an unprecedented clutch run in these playoffs.

His final stat line was not terribly impressive — 14 points and six assists on 6-of-13 shooting — but Haliburton stepped to the plate with the game on the line. His go-ahead dagger gave Indiana its first lead of the game.

Nothing about this win makes sense. OKC won the turnover battle 23-6, with the Pacers coughing up 18 turnovers in the first half alone. The Thunder were up 12 at halftime and nine with 2:38 on the clock in the fourth quarter. And yet somehow, some way, the Pacers found a way. As they are wont to do.

This win goes not seal the deal, however.

Subscribe to The Whiteboard, FanSided's daily email newsletter on everything basketball. If you like The Whiteboard, share it with a friend. If you hate it, share it with an enemy!

Pacers can't rest easy after stunning Game 1 upset of Thunder in NBA Finals

While winning Game 1 can be a strong barometer in the playoffs, the Finals typically feature the crème de la crème. A road upset early does not historically guarantee much of anything, with those teams a combined 8-10 in the series overall. That means history is still, technically, on OKC's side.

This is a game OKC wins 99 out of 100 times. The Thunder could stand to shoot better and hammer the glass more — Indiana's size advantage was deeply felt over those last two minutes — but OKC's defense swarmed the Pacers all night. The Thunder did not trail once until the last third of a second. This outcome was absurd in the extreme, and it's proof that Indiana has a long way to go before Haliburton hoists the Larry O'Brien trophy.

That said, odds are Indiana won't finish another game minus-17 in the turnover department. Mark Daigneault and OKC will come with adjustments, but so will Rick Carlisle, who continues to quietly outperform the vast majority of his peers, as he has done for more than two decades as a head coach.

No team smells blood in the water more acutely than the 2024-25 Indiana Pacers. This team needs only the faintest glimmer of hope late in games. There's a difference between ice in the veins and whatever we are witnessing from Indiana right now. This Pacers team just completely blocks out nerves and keeps working against impossible odds. When the lights are turned up brightest late in games, Indiana operates with a poise and precision no other team in the league can manifest. Haliburton knew exactly where he was on the court, read the matchup, and attacked — all while Carlisle wisely let the final 10 seconds play out sans a timeout.

This Pacers team is uniquely built to counter what OKC does defensively. The turnover woes were noticeable, of course, and the Thunder will smother whomever is put in their path. But unlike Minnesota or Denver, Indiana won't really give OKC the chance to gang up on iso scorers and playmaking hubs. Haliburton spent most of this game in the backseat, picking his spots and attacking the jugular when the moment demanded it. They spread the wealth and let offense come naturally. When a team begins to slip even a little bit, as OKC did down the stretch, the Pacers can kick it into high gear and overwhelm you in an instant with tempo and shooting.

We have a series on our hands, folks. Indiana just stole home court advantage. Is it over? No. Is it interesting? Oh yeah.