The 2025 Stanley Cup Final is currently tied at one win apiece between the Edmonton Oilers and the defending champion Florida Panthers. The two are locked in a rematch of last year's final, just the 12th such instance in NHL history.
Both contests needed at least one extra period to determine a winner. The Oilers took Game 1 in overtime while the Panthers emerged with Game 2 after a Brad Marchand game-winner in double-OT.
Naturally, one would think the winner of Game 3 will have all the momentum and be the clear favorite to win the series. But what if I told you that's not actually the case?
One Reddit user delved deep into the data and discovered that Game 3 is relatively insignificant in the grand scheme of the best-of-seven series.
Winning Game 3 isn't all important to lifting the Stanley Cup
Since 2005 — or the introduction of the salary cap in the NHL — only eight of the last 19 Stanley Cup winners (42 percent) have won Game 3 of the series. Last year, Edmonton won that contest 5-3 over Florida and we all know how that turned out in the end.
Now, prior to 2005, the numbers are much different. Since 1938 — or the debut of the best-of-seven games series — 55 Stanley Cup winners (64.7 percent) won Game 3. However, the percentage steadily drops over time.
Since 1967, also known as the expansion era, only 35 Stanley Cup winners (62.5 percent) won Game 3. The drop off from then to now is pretty significant and actually suggests winning Games 1, 2 and 4 are more important to emerging victorious in the series as a whole.
So, if you're a Panthers or Oilers fan, there may be a little logic in tempering expectations for Monday's Game 3 in Florida. If your team doesn't come out on top, the series is far from over. In fact, your squad may actually have the advantage.
Nevertheless, these figures won't be a factor in the respective locker rooms. Both Florida and Edmonton are going to give their all to win all four games needed to lift the Stanley Cup.