The Houston Rockets look to be positioned well for the current rebuilding phase, holding a wealth of future first-round draft picks. From 2025 through 2031, Houston holds several valuable draft assets, including their own picks, protected picks and swap rights involving other teams. These picks highlight Houston's long-term investment in developing through the draft and also underscore an emphasis on maintaining flexibility. Let’s take a look at some of the Rockets' picks over the next few years.
Houston Rockets first-round draft picks by year
2025 - More favorable of HOU and PHX then other to BRK if HOU 1-10 or if HOU 11-30 less favorable than LAC; or more favorable of (i) PHX and (ii) less favorable of HOU 11-30 and OKC then other to BRK; and more favorable of HOU 11-30 and OKC to OKC if HOU 11-30 more favorable than LAC (via OKC swap for HOU 11-30 or LAC; via PHX to BRK; via HOU swap of HOU or OKC for PHX)
2026 - 1-4 Own; two most / more favorable of HOU 5-30, LAC and OKC to OKC then other to PHL (via OKC)
2027 - Own or swap for BRK; PHX (via BRK)
2028 - Own
2029 - Two most favorable of HOU, DAL and PHX then other to BRK (via DAL and PHX to BRK; via DAL or PHX to HOU; via HOU swap for DAL or PHX)
2030 - Own
2031 - Own
2025: Multiple picks - Complex swaps and conditions
Houston can keep their first-round pick in 2025, provided it falls within the top 10. If it lands outside of the top 10, the pick may be swapped with Oklahoma City's pick. The Rockets' pick this year is more than likely to be swapped with another team as it’s very unlikely it falls within the top 10 of the lottery. These swaps add layers of complexity but also maximize Houston’s chances of securing a somewhat favorable draft position.
This convoluted web of protections and swaps ensures the Rockets won’t walk away without a valuable 2025 asset. However, their draft success that year will hinge on the lottery outcomes and performance of teams like the Phoenix Suns and OKC Thunder.
2026: Top 4 Protection and conditional rights
In 2026, Houston’s first-round pick is heavily protected. This pick will go to the Thunder unless it falls within the top four of the draft lottery. If the Rockets’ pick lands in the top four, they keep it, giving them a shot at an elite prospect within that draft class. Otherwise, Oklahoma City receives the best two picks of their own, Houston’s (if outside the top four), or the LA Clippers' pick.
While a top 4 protection gives Houston some reassurance, losing this pick would mean relinquishing a highly valued draft position to a Western Conference rival. Scenarios for 2026 largely depend on Houston's trajectory and how the team performs over the next year and a half.
2027–2029: Strategic opportunities via swap rights
For 2027 Houston’s draft capital includes their own first-round selection and a swap opportunity with Brooklyn. Houston could potentially trade up if Brooklyn finishes lower in the standings. This gives them some flexibility depending on the quality of the ‘27 draft class and the state of the Nets’ roster by then.
In ‘29, the Rockets hold rights to two of the most favorable picks among their own, Dallas Mavericks and Suns selections, while the least favorable will go to Brooklyn. By this time, Houston should be done with the rebuilding phase and in full-fledged contender mode but a lot can happen within that time. For now, the Rockets own their picks for ’30-31 but of course, that could also change at any time.
Strategic significance of Houston’s draft assets
This assortment of Rockets picks from 2025 through 2031 spotlight the front office’s emphasis on building a sustainable roster. By prioritizing flexibility, Houston has ensured they’re well-prepared for both draft-night maneuvers and potential trades.
Their extensive draft capital positions Houston as a strong player in trade negotiations. Whether the Rockets aim to acquire a proven star or package picks to move up in a draft, they possess the capital needed to make such deals. These aren’t only viewed as trade bait but also provide insurance against poor lottery outcomes.
Latest trends suggest Houston may favor development, aligning with their patient approach in nurturing young talents like Jalen Green and Alperen Şengün. The Rockets’ use of protection and swap rights helps shield them against downside risks, assuring they are never left empty-handed. For example, their top 10 protection in 2025 and top 4 protection in 2026 safeguard critical assets during the rebuild, while swaps give them more options down the road.