The 2025 NBA Draft Lottery will make one NBA team extremely happy on Monday night. It will leave the rest disappointed. That's because only one team can win the right to make Duke star Cooper Flagg the No. 1 overall pick.
The Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards and Charlotte Hornets had the worst records in the NBA this season. They have the best odds to get the No. 1 pick, but it's far from guaranteed.
The lottery will decide their fate with the official NBA Draft order being set at 4 p.m. ET live from Chicago. ESPN will broadcast the festivities. But while that's going on, there's no better time to figure one thing out: How does it all even work?
How does the NBA Draft Lottery work?
You might think the NBA Draft Lottery would be simple. Couldn't they just stick one ball for each team into a bingo wheel and set the order one by one? It's a far more complex process than that.
Here's how it actually works:
The very basic explanation
The Nos. 1-14 are assigned to 14 ping pong balls, which are placed in the lottery selector. Four of those balls will be pulled out, forming a number combination. That number will correspond to one of the numbers that were pre-assigned to the eligible NBA teams based on their percentage chance of getting the No. 1 pick.
The first number combination will determine the first overall pick. The next combination will set No. 2 and then No. 3 and then No. 4. The remaining 10 teams will have their draft position set by their inverse record from the 2024-25 season.
The more complex explanation
Let's get a bit more specific here.
The 14 ping-pong balls that will decide the draft order are placed in a selector and spun. There is a 20-second spin before the first ball is picked. The balls are then mixed for 10 seconds before the second ball is picked. Another 10 seconds follow for the third ball and then 10 more for the fourth. The accounting firm of Ernst & Young oversees this process. The four balls selected will set the combination for the No. 1 pick.
The numbers pulled from 14 balls can create 1,001 unique number combinations. All but one of those combinations is assigned to the eligible teams (if drawn, the unassigned number will not count and a re-draw will take place). The higher percentage chance a team has of getting the No. 1 pick, the more numbers they get assigned. It's like a raffle. The more tickets you hold, the better chance you have to win.
The NBA wanted to stop incentivize tanking, so they changed the lottery odds starting in 2019. Before, the three teams at the bottom of the standings had a 25, 19.9 and 15.6 percent chance at the No. 1 pick in order of worst record. Now, each of the worst three teams in the NBA has an equal 14 percent chance to win the lottery. That means they each receive 140 combinations.
Odds to land the No. 1 pick in 2025
Team | Combinations | Chance at No. 1 | Chance at Top 4 |
|---|---|---|---|
Jazz | 140 | 14.0% | 52.13% |
Wizards | 140 | 14.0% | 52.13% |
Hornets | 140 | 14.0% | 52.13% |
Pelicans | 125 | 12.5% | 48.07% |
76ers* | 105 | 10.5% | 42.11% |
Nets | 90 | 9.0% | 37.22% |
Raptors | 75 | 7.5% | 29.36% |
Spurs | 60 | 6.0% | 28.98% |
Suns** | 45 | 4.5% | 20.27% |
Trail Blazers | 30 | 3.0% | 13.88% |
Mavericks | 20 | 2.0% | 8.50% |
Bulls | 15 | 1.5% | 8.04% |
Kings*** | 10 | 1.0% | 4.78% |
Hawks**** | 5 | 0.5% | 2.41% |
* The 76ers pick is top-6 protected, otherwise it will go to the Thunder
** The Suns pick will go to the Rockets
*** The Kings pick is top-12 protected, otherwise it will go to the Hawks
**** The Hawks pick will go to the Spurs
NBA Draft order for non-lottery teams in 2025
The rest of the NBA will watch knowing their draft fate is already sealed.
16. Magic
17. Pistons (to Grizzlies via Knicks, Thunder and Rockets)
18. Grizzlies (to Wizards)
19. Bucks (to Nets via Knicks, Pistons, Trail Blazers and Pelicans)
20. Warriors (to Heat)
21. Grizzlies (to Jazz)
22. Lakers (to Hawks via Pelicans)
23. Pacers
24. Clippers (to Thunder)
25. Nuggets (to Magic)
26. Knicks (to Nets)
27. Rockets (to Nets)
28. Celtics
29. Cavaliers (to Suns via Jazz)
30. Thunder (to Clippers)