The WNBA playoff field is set, and the postseason begins on Sunday with all eight playoff teams in action. Heading into these best-of-three series, upsets are definitely possible. The way I always see it? The shorter the series, the better chance that something gets weird.
Of course, a best-of-three series is better than the old single-game eliminations were, and we'll probably see the best teams emerge as the winners once the postseason gets going, but it's far from a guarantee. And if we do get upsets, what are those upsets going to be?
In order from least likely to be upset to most likely, let's look at which higher seeds are vulnerable in the first round.
4. Minnesota Lynx (No. 1 seed)
The Golden State Valkyries deserve credit for being the first expansion team in WNBA history to make the playoffs in their first season. Seriously — great work by head coach Natalie Nakase and her players.
Unfortunately, they're probably about to get throttled in the playoffs.
The Lynx are the league's best team by a fairly wide margin. Maybe you could argue that the Valkyries having played Minnesota twice already this month might give them some extra knowledge of what to expect from the Lynx, but Golden State also lost both of those games, including a pretty bad loss on Thursday night to end the season.
Golden State enters the postseason on a three-game losing streak. Minnesota is 20-2 at home this season. This one isn't going to be much of a series.
3. Atlanta Dream (No. 3 seed)
I can hear you now, reader. You're yelling at me for saying that the Aces will be more vulnerable in the first round than the Dream. Here's the truth: I don't think either team loses this series, but I think Atlanta faces an easier time because of who they play.
The Dream get to face the Indiana Fever, a team that just isn't really a huge threat with Caitlin Clark sidelined. Sure, the team managed to go 24-20 with Clark missing 31 games, and sure, the team was 5-2 over the final seven games of the season, but only one of those wins was against a team seeded higher than seventh in the playoff field. I just don't see this Fever team making much of a run here. Injuries have ravaged them this season, to the point where the Fever are relying heavily on Odyssey Sims and Aerial Powers.
It's also a bad matchup for Aliyah Boston, as Atlanta has Brionna Jones and Brittney Griner. The two struggle sometimes to share the floor, but being able to throw one of them out there on Boston at all times potentially takes away one of the top players that Indiana needs if it's going to score the upset.
2. Las Vegas (No. 2 seed)
Outside of the top five seeds, there's one of the remaining three playoff teams that I wouldn't want to face in a short series because its high-end talent is really good. That's the Seattle Storm, and that's who the No. 2 seed Aces have to face.
Seattle's depth concerns were a big part of why the team fell all the way to the No. 7 seed, but in the playoffs with rotations tightening, this is a pretty scary team.
The Storm can start Ezi Magbegor, Nneka Ogwumike, Gabby Williams, Brittney Sykes and Skylar Diggins while bringing Erica Wheeler and Dominique Malonga off the bench. That's some serious talent. The issue, though, is it's also only a seven-player rotation, and the Storm can't really afford to expand beyond there because the talent drops off fast. That also leaves them highly susceptible to injury — if any of those seven players gets hurt, especially one of the starters, then the Storm might be screwed.
Still, it's not a team Vegas wants to play. Sure, the Aces are the league's hottest team at the moment after winning 16 in a row to close out the regular season and the team has the world's best player, A'ja Wilson, but in a three-game series against a healthy Storm team, things could get funky. Magbegor is a great defender. Sykes adds a dimension that was still being figured out the last time these teams met, a game that Vegas only won by four points back in August.
I think Vegas still gets it done, but more shocking things have happened before. Don't count out the Storm
1. Phoenix Mercury (No. 4 seed)
When it comes down to it, there's only one team with homecourt in the first round that I'd actually pick to lose its series, and that's the Phoenix Mercury.
The defending champion New York Liberty had a rough second half of the season, going from a contender for the No. 1 overall seed all the way down to the No. 5 seed at the start of the postseason. On one hand, not having home-court in the first round — or, likely, at all in any playoff series — sucks for the Liberty. On the other hand, facing a Mercury team that enters the playoffs on a three-game losing streak is a better scenario than some other potential scenarios.
New York is only 1-3 this year against Phoenix, which is definitely something of a concern. But New York was missing key pieces in each of those losses, including losing Jonquel Jones to injury during their meeting back in June.
The Liberty are at full strength finally, and it's led to a three-game win streak to enter the postseason. Watch out for New York.