Now that the First Four has tipped off, the NCAA Tournament is officially underway with first-round action quickly approaching on Thursday. As is the case each year, basketball enthusiasts or those just looking to get in on the action look for the upsets and those Cinderella stories that make March Madness what it truly is.
Despite the momentum a team brings from winning its conference tournament or the talent on the floor, that does not guarantee anything this time of year in a one-and-done tournament where anything can happen. All it takes is one team getting the hot hand or some momentum on its side and the upset dream becomes a reality.
One seed that does not get the attention it deserves is the 13-seed. While it is common for most fans to go with the popular 12-seed over the 5-seed or the 11-seed over the 6-seed, recent history shows that 13-seeds should not be ignored.
How often do No. 13 seeds upset No. 4 seeds in the NCAA Tournament?
Since the tournament was expanded to 64 teams in 1985, there have been 33 instances of a No. 13 seed taking down a No. 4 seed. With a 33-123 record, No. 13 seeds have a 21.15 winning percentage, per NCAA stats. For comparison, No. 14 seeds have only defeated No. 3 seeds 14.74% of the time, which shows there is a higher likelihood of the 13-seed moving on to the second round.
With the exception of the 2019-20 COVID-impacted season, 2022 was the only time a 13-seed has not defeated a 4-seed. In 2021, there were two instances of a 13-seed winning a first-round game as North Texas defeated Purdue and Ohio eliminated Virginia. Going back to 2018, two more 13-seeds — Buffalo and Marshall — advanced to the second round.
NCAA Tournament history: When's the last time a 13-seed upset a 4-seed?
In the 2024 NCAA Tournament, one 13-seed upset a 4-seed when Yale shocked Auburn. However, the Bulldogs' run ended in the second round with a loss to San Diego State. That was one of 12 instances of a 13-seed upsetting a 4-seed since 2010. Below is a list of every 13-4 upset since 2010.
Season | Winning team | Losing team |
|---|---|---|
2010 | Murray State | Vanderbilt |
2011 | Morehead State | Louisville |
2012 | Ohio | Michigan |
2013 | La Salle | Kansas State |
2016 | Hawaii | California |
2018 | Buffalo | Arizona |
2018 | Marshall | Wichita State |
2019 | UC Irvine | Kansas State |
2021 | North Texas | Purdue |
2021 | Ohio | Virginia |
2023 | Furman | Virginia |
2024 | Yale | Auburn |
The 13-seeds in this year's tournament are Yale, Akron, Grand Canyon and High Point. Yale has the best NET ranking (72) and the most Quad 2 wins (two) between the four teams. While neither of them have proven they can beat a Quad 1 opponent, Yale likely has the best chance to pull an upset and repeat what it accomplished a season ago, although an upset from High Point would not be too surprising given Purdue's inconsistency all season and lackluster defense (71.1%, 149th in the country).