With Tuesday night's First Four action marking the beginning of the NCAA Tournament, the deadline for those looking to fill out brackets is closing quickly. The official deadline to have picks submitted is around noon ET on Thursday, prior to first-round games tipping off. Once picks lock at that time, basketball fans will have to wait until the second-chance brackets become available to fill out once the first weekend of games conclude.
The tournament officially gets underway on Tuesday night with 16-seeds St. Francis and Alabama State in the first game and the 11-seeds North Carolina and San Diego State in the nightcap. With two more games on Wednesday between the 16-seeds Mount St. Mary's and American and the 11-seeds Xavier and Texas, the first full day of games is not until Thursday. That is when the remaining 64 teams will begin taking to the court and the madness truly begins, including the 3-14 games.
While the 5-12, 6-11 and even 4-13 games have historically produced more upsets than the 3-14 games, more 14 seeds have advanced to the second round than you might think.
How often do 14 seeds upset 3 seeds in the NCAA Tournament?
When March rolls around, the popular upset picks tend to go to the 10-12 seeds while the 14-seeds have traditionally been overlooked. Although 14-seeds have a 23-133 all-time record in the Big Dance, it is not out of question that at least one of them can pull an upset each year. A 14-3 upset is twice as likely as a 15-2 upset, but less likely than a 13-seed pulling the upset, which has happened 33 times since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
Since the expansion of the tournament, a 14-seed has upset the three seed 14.74 percent of the time. Overall, that suggests that a 3-seed usually ends up advancing, but the 14-seed upset has happened enough in the tournament's history to warrant some attention.
NCAA Tournament history: When's the last time a 14-seed upset a 3-seed?
In the 2024 NCAA Tournament, one 14-seed upset a 3-seed, as Oakland and the sweet-shooting Jack Gohlke took down Kentucky. While the Golden Grizzlies lost to the 11-seed NC State in the second-round, it was another example of a 14-seed pulling a surprise upset in the NCAA Tournament. Below is a list of every 14-3 upset since 2010.
Season | Winning team | Losing team |
|---|---|---|
2010 | Ohio | Georgetown |
2013 | Harvard | New Mexico |
2014 | Mercer | Duke |
2015 | UAB | Iowa State |
2015 | Georgia State | Baylor |
2016 | Stephen F. Austin | West Virginia |
2021 | Abilene Christian | Texas |
2024 | Oakland | Kentucky |
Predicting which teams can pull off 14-3 upsets in 2025
Although Oakland's upset over Kentucky was the first time since 2021 and only the second time since 2016 that a 14-seed advanced, it once again proved that you should never underestimate any team on that seed line. Lipscomb has the best NET ranking (84) of the 14-seeds, with Akron (91) next in line. While none of the four 14-seeds have a Quad 1 win, Troy has two Quad 2 victories to its credit. Going off the NET ranking and considering Iowa State will be without its second-leading scorer Keshon Gilbert (out with groin injury), Lipscomb gets the nod here.