There may not be a bigger Lincoln Riley hater out there than me. At every sign of adversity, he cowers and runs the other way; it's why fans of his former employer do not have the nicest nickname for the current USC Trojans head coach. That being said, it is getting harder and harder for the Trojan Family to defend him. Riley was hired to return USC to prominence, but he might be worse than his predecessor Clay Helton.
I wrote about this earlier for FanSided.com about five college football head coaches who need to win early to stave off being axed by their program's athletic director. Riley came in third because of the nature of USC's 2025 schedule. Right now, there are three games on their schedule they are not winning: at Illinois, at Notre Dame and at Oregon. So that gives the Trojans a 9-3 (7-2) ceiling.
So does that mean we need to set the bar at making the College Football Playoff for this season of USC football? I think with what we have seen over the last few seasons, we need to lower our expectations a bit. This schedule is tough, but Riley needs to prove he is tough once and for all. It is why I would argue an 8-4 (6-3) record with one more conference loss should be their new standard.
It is all about incremental progress in the new Big Ten, but Riley has to show he is up for the challenge.
Why USC must lower the expectations just a bit for Lincoln Riley in 2025
Truth be told, there is a narrow margin in which I think Riley can realistically operate and keep his job. Look at what Billy Napier did at Florida last year: Everybody and their brother knew the Gators had the hardest schedule in the country. Even in defeat, his team still played hard for him. That effort was not wasted. Florida upset a few teams down the stretch before clobbering Tulane in the Gasparilla Bowl.
What the 2024 Gators were is what I hope the 2025 Trojans could be like. Florida enters this season as a fringe College Football Playoff contender because they might have the right quarterback in DJ Lagway, and possibly the right head coach in Napier. The schedule is brutally bad, tied with Oklahoma for the most difficult in college football. Florida is not perfect, but no one feels sorry for them either.
It is not so much about the wins as it is the effort for the Trojans under Riley. If the Trojans can play like I know they are capable of, they can get quality wins in Big Ten play over teams like Iowa, Michigan and Nebraska. What I am concerned about is USC finding new and creative ways of losing to teams it should beat on its schedule such as Michigan State, Northwestern and UCLA. Please, do not lose to UCLA.
Ultimately, I think it is unfair to say it has to be playoff or bust for Riley at USC this season — even though, in most years and circumstances, that probably should be the case. To me, it all comes down to Riley's working relationship with his athletic director Jennifer Cohen. She came over from Washington to win. Cohen did not hire Riley. Mike Bohn did. This is why a strong effort in 2025 goes a long way.
For Riley to keep his job, USC will need win around seven or eight games, but with some grit to it, too.