Is Juan Soto worth $700 million? Comparing MLB’s top free agent to 3 Hall of Famers

Look at any MLB news outlet, and you’ll come to one conclusion: The baseball world is revolving around one man, and that man is Juan Soto. Soto is the undisputed king of the 2024 offseason and for good reason. He is a five-time Silver Slugger with a batting title under his belt. Over the years, we’ve seen many offseason kings, such as Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, but this one is remarkably different.

To compare, Judge signed a deal worth $360 million. Ohtani signed a record deal for any sport worth $700 million. This offseason, Soto’s bidding has reportedly eclipsed $600 million and is expected to approach $700 million. Chances are that Soto won’t grab as much cash as Ohtani. But Steve Cohen of the Mets is not only trying to place the top bid for Soto, but also working proactively in an attempt to humiliate all other bids. That tells me we won't truly know until Soto has signed.

However, it’s not just the amount of money that will be spent on Soto that makes this free agent pursuit remarkably different. It's what these teams hope to get for their money.

Juan Soto has never won an MVP award. He does not pitch. And he is not a good defender in the outfield. Is he really worth as much as Ohtani and nearly twice as much as Judge? To answer this question, let's compare the stats and career earnings of some of the game’s greatest players. Let’s start with the man in question and go by the numbers. Note that all stats are from Baseball Reference, career earnings from Spotrac, and all current day earnings estimates calculated using an inflation calculator.

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Juan Soto (2018-present)

• Career AVG: .285  
• Career OBP: .421  
• 162-game avg HR total: 35 
• WAR-7: 36.4
• Average yearly WAR value: 6.3 
• Expected career earnings: $682.3 million

Out of the gate, Soto’s career batting average is very good, but not quite worth $600 million. In the shortened year of 2020, he finished with a career-high .351 average. That year, he led the National League in batting average, while leading baseball in SLG, OBP, OPS and OPS+ among other advanced stats. It was the first of only two times he hit over .300. A performance like this would be worthy of $600 million if he could repeat it every year, but he hasn’t quite repeated these magnificent feats. Let’s dig a little deeper.

His 162-game average home run total of 35 is impressive, but it also does not justify such a princely contract. Despite the total of 35, Soto has only eclipsed this mark and matched it once each. Soto’s career-high home run total stands at 41, which he achieved in 2024. This average is likely a result of his 13 in the shortened 2020 season. Nonetheless, Soto’s rampage this past season was the mark of a fierce power-threat. But if hitting 62 home runs only made Judge $360 million (a record at the time), why would Soto earn nearly twice as much?

What makes Soto a true kingmaker? His career on-base percentage of .421 is the highest career OBP of any current player. His excellent plate discipline and ability to work counts has resulted in tons of walks. He led the MLB three times in that stat while leading it in OBP twice. Even more impressive, Soto has never recorded a single-season OBP lower than .401. In the annals of MLB history, his career OBP ranks 18th highest among qualifiers (Soto is not yet considered a qualifier). Having a player get on base at such a high click is a definite luxury for any team.

Soto’s WAR-7 value of 36.4 represents his collective WAR value over his seven highest yearly WAR values. Since Soto has only played for seven years, his WAR-7 is the same as his career WAR value and his JAWS, which is why we’re using WAR-7 instead of JAWS. This places Soto at a distinct disadvantage compared to our HOFers, as their WAR-7 values will include only their best years.

One advantage Soto does have in our comparisons is that he is still in his prime. The HOFers on this list have all dealt with decline. Soto’s career earnings stand at $82 million. He is projected to make over $600 million throughout the rest of his career.

3. Mickey Mantle (active 1951-1968)

• Career AVG: .298  
• Career OBP: .421  
• 162-game avg HR total: 36  
• WAR-7: 64.7
• Avg yearly WAR value: 7.4  
• Career earnings: $1.1 million (1968)
• Today’s value: $10.2 million

Mickey Mantle is one the most famous names in sports history and with good reason. Mantle won a triple crown in 1956, three MVPs, a Gold Glove, and was selected to 20 All-Star Games. How does Juan Soto compare to such a prominent icon?

At a glance, we see some similarities between Soto and a true all-time great. Mantle’s yearly home run average stands at only one higher than Soto’s, and his OBP is exactly the same. However, it’s fair to note that baseball fields were larger in Mantle’s days. This meant dingers were far less frequent than by today’s standard. Mantle once led the AL with 37 home runs. He mashed 40+ home runs four times in his 18-year career, topping the 50-mark twice with a career-high of 54.

In batting average and WAR, Mantle distinguishes himself from Soto by a noticeable margin. Mantle posted ten years’ worth of .300+ averages, two of which eclipsed Soto’s .351 from 2020. More than that, he led the majors in numerous stats across several years, making him one of the MLB’s most formidable hitters. An aging Mantle slowed down considerably during his final years in pinstripes as a nagging knee pain progressed and eventually led to his retirement.

As one of the MLB greats, it's estimated that he earned a total of $1.128 million by the time his career ended in 1968. Today, this would be worth more than $10 million. To point out the obvious, MLB players have seen some major raises in salary as the game of baseball has grown. Now, the rate at which these raises occur has seen some exponential growth. But none of this helps us answer our question.

Is Soto better than Mantle? No, at least not yet. But it’s clear that looking at Mantle’s career earnings won’t help us determine what Soto is worth. So, let’s try a more recent example.

2. Chipper Jones (1993-2012)

• Career AVG: .303  
• Career OBP: .401  
• 162-game avg HR total: 30  
• WAR-7: 46.8
• Avg yearly WAR value: 5.5 
• Career earnings: $168 million (2012)
• Today’s value: $224 million

With a career batting average over .300, around 30 home runs per year, and career OBP over .400; two-time Silver Slugger and 1999 MVP Chipper Jones really could do it all. Jones is one face on the Mt. Rushmore of Atlanta Braves players having served as the cornerstone of their organization for 18 years (he was a Brave for 20 years, saw four plate appearances in 1993, missed 1994).

Starting with his career batting average, Chipper’s .303 matches the mean batting average of all HOF hitters. Compared to Soto’s career average, Chipper has a sizeable advantage. Chipper hit for averages above .300 10 times in 19 seasons topping out at .364 in 2008 winning the batting title that season and leading the MLB not only in batting average but in OBP as well.

Aside from his batting average, Chipper’s other offensive stats lag Soto’s. His 30-home run per year on average doesn’t quite match Soto’s 35, but his career-high single-season home run total of 45 stands just above Soto’s 41. The only other stat by which Chipper leads is WAR-7, which as I explained earlier, is not a favorable stat to Soto.

This isn’t to put Chipper down; he was no slouch by any stretch of the definition, and his slowdown during the final four years of his career have undoubtedly put a dent on his spectacular career numbers. However, it is no secret that Soto is a prolific hitter.

For his unforgettable performance, it's estimated that Chipper earned a total of $168 million, worth more than $224 million today, quite a shocking difference for just 12 years. This $224 million figure gives us a more accurate idea of what a Chipper Jones-type player should accrue in today’s game. If Soto should meet the $700 million mark, he’ll be worth over three times Chipper Jones by today’s standard. While this doesn’t exactly prove that Soto isn’t worth $700 million, the one thing we have learned is that he is on a HOF trajectory. So, let’s compare him to one more recent player and one of the MLB’s top sluggers.

1. Frank Thomas (1990-2008)

• Career AVG: .301  
• Career OBP: .419  
• 162-game avg HR total: 36  
• WAR-7: 45.4  
• Avg yearly WAR value: 5.1  
• Career earnings: $108.6 million (2008)
• Today’s value: $159 million

A quick glance at the numbers, and you may see that not all the career stats do Frank Thomas justice. Thomas won two MVPs, a batting title and four Silver Sluggers. His 521 career home runs tie him for 20th all-time. He tallied home run totals of 40 or more five times in his 19-year career topping out at 43. For nine of those years, his batting average eclipsed .300, surpassing .345 three times with a max of .353. Throughout his early career, he topped the MLB in several stats in a dominant stretch.

However, there is a reason why I chose Thomas to compare to Soto. Thomas’ batting average towers over Soto’s and his home run rate was slightly better, but the main reason was his on-base percentage. Thomas’ .419 OBP is the highest OBP for any Hall of Fame player that retired after 1968 (when Mickey Mantle retired). This figure is slightly lower than Soto’s .421, and it includes Thomas’ decline.

Thomas lags Soto, along with our other HOFers, in average yearly WAR value, but this could be because he spent a lot of time as a DH. Those who field a position gain higher WAR values for playing defense. Another cause for the rather low numbers can be attributed to injuries that saw him miss considerable playing time, thus lowering his WAR value on average.

Over his career, Thomas only made just over $108.6 million, worth more than $159.2 million today. This isn’t exactly the monster salary one would expect an offensive firestorm to rake in, but it does go to show how the game has changed in just two decades. But does any of this really help us find Soto’s true worth?

Is Juan Soto worth $700 million?

In the past few years, the bidding for free agents has become outrageous. But in the end, this bidding is not to acquire a player at their fair value price. Every player is valued differently by each team depending on their needs. Soto happens to be a generational talent. This isn’t about how much he is worth but what he brings to the team. In early November, I made a prediction that Soto won’t net $700 million, but I could very well be wrong. In my assessment, I described the Soto bidding as this:

“At one point or another, executives will need to ask themselves this question: ‘Is Soto worth more than [Shohei Ohtani]?’ However, in Soto’s favor, these same executives are at the mercy of market conditions. This goes back to the basic economics lesson of supply and demand. To put it this way, there is nothing else currently on the market like Soto and there might not be anything on the market like him for a long time. In other words, the supply is very low and the demand for his talent is very high."

"This essentially means that we can disregard what Aaron Judge makes—it's not a comparison. Rather, it's an auction for a powerful commodity who can easily fill real offensive needs, and teams will need to pay up or miss out."

Judge and Ohtani are not on the market; Soto is. When it comes down to it, if Soto is the player that represents your best chance at winning a championship and you firmly trust that he can make your ballclub the best in baseball, then he is worth every penny of the $700 million he wants.

As we’ve discussed, Soto is on a Hall of Fame trajectory, and he is in elite company with an OBP that mirrors Mickey Mantle’s. With his potential, it doesn’t matter if he’s a better player than Ohtani, Judge or any HOFer we discussed. What does matter is his impact on the team he lands on, and that’s why several owners are willing to spend to the moon and back for him.