Is Michigan vs. Illinois a College Football Playoff elimination game?

Now that we're entering the second half of the 2024 college football season, more and more teams will be mathematically eliminated from College Football Playoff contention. I did the hard work earlier today so you don't have to. As things stand now, of the 134 teams competing at the FBS level, 63 teams have been functionally eliminated from the playoff, while a whopping 71 are still alive.

Of those 71 teams, only 29 are still going to be in the College Football Playoff mix no matter what happens this week. A win obviously keeps them in, but a Week 8 loss won't knock them out entirely (plus potential bubble teams like Ole Miss, Pittsburgh and Syracuse who are on a bye this week). That leaves us with 42 teams whose heads are on the chopping block this weekend.

One marquee matchup in the Big 10 will pit two of them against each other, as the No. 24 Michigan Wolverines face off with the No. 22 Illinois Fighting Illini. Michigan is 4-2 on the season and 2-1 in Big Ten play. Illinois is 5-1 on the year and 2-1 in conference play. Both teams are in single digits when it comes to their odds off making the playoff, with Illinois at 3.5 percent and Michigan even worse at 2.4 percent. So yes, this game is 100 percent a playoff elimination game!

Let's now unpack why that is for both teams, as well as any potential pathways the winner could have to get in.

Michigan at Illinois is a certain College Football Playoff elimination game

The biggest reason why Michigan is still in the mix to make the playoff is that the Wolverines only have one conference loss. That came two weeks ago at Washington, a team who has already been mathematically eliminated. Their other defeat, while bad in some aspects, was a crushing blow at home to the No. 1 team in the nation in the Texas Longhorns. Everyone loses to Texas these days.

Despite the two losses, Michigan still has a chance to make it in by virtue of four more games against ranked teams in the second half of their season. Those wins would be over Illinois, Oregon, Indiana and Ohio State, which would get them to Indianapolis with a solid resume at 10-2 (8-1). (Of course, there is nothing we have seen out of this Michigan team that leads us to believe they will have any shot at Oregon or Ohio State, but we can't rule it out entirely.)

But the margin for error here couldn't be slimmer, because a crowded at-large picture means a 9-3 (7-2) team is too unlikely a candidate for the playoff. Michigan would have to win out after losing to Illinois, a team that the Wolverines would need to keep on winning games. They would need Illinois to finish the season ranked, but in that case the Illini would likely be ahead of them in line for a playoff spot.

As for Illinois, the Illini's only loss was by two scores on the road to undefeated Penn State. They have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Nebraska, another fringe contending team in the Big Ten facing potential playoff elimination this week. The Cornhuskers need to beat Indiana in Bloomington to give them the best chance at survival.

Overall, Illinois is still in far better shape than Michigan is, because after the Michigan game, the only near-certain loss on the Illini's schedule would be at Oregon in two weeks. With a win at home over the Wolverines, Illinois could be a compelling CFP candidate at 10-2 (7-2) at the end of the season with head-to-head losses to only fellow playoff teams in Oregon and Penn State. (They would really need for Indiana to fade in the second half of the season, as the Hoosiers have still yet to lose and have a favorable schedule outside of a matchup against Ohio State.) This is why I feel that only four Big Ten teams get in this season: The round robin between contending teams figures to take its toll over the coming weeks.

Illinois has a halfway decent chance to be Big Ten team No. 4, while Michigan has almost no shot at it.