Is the winner of LSU-Texas A&M a lock to make the College Football Playoff?
By John Buhler
The only thing better than being 6-1 is being 7-1. That is what is at stake when the No. 14 Texas A&M Aggies host the rival No. 8 LSU Tigers at Kyle Field on Saturday night. This is the biggest and perhaps most important game of the Week 9 slate in college football. While No. 21 Missouri at No. 15 Alabama is a de facto College Football Playoff elimination game, will the winner of this one a lock to make it in?
On the year, the Aggies are 6-1 overall and 4-0 in SEC play. Their only loss came in Week 1 at home vs. Notre Dame, who are also 6-1 on the season and ranked inside of the top 15. For LSU, the Tigers are also 6-1 on the season, but only 3-0 in SEC play. While they did lose in Week 1 as well, that came against a USC Trojans team that has completely nosedived, having lost four of their last five games.
Entering Week 9, I had both the Aggies and the Tigers on the SEC playoff bubble, predicting that the winner would join the ranks of Georgia, Texas and Tennessee heading into Week 10. That is still the case. I am going back and forth as to who I think is going to win the game, but I will have a pick for you as part of Just Like Novocaine on Thursday's episode of False Start. Get your popcorn ready for that!
So let's answer the question you have all been waiting for: Is the winner of this game a playoff lock?
LSU at Texas A&M: Is winner pretty much a lock to make the playoff now?
Looking at LSU's four remaining games after Texas A&M, they might all be in conference play, but they are also winnable. Wins over Florida in Gainesville and home vs. Oklahoma feel the most likely. So in theory, LSU might only need to split with Alabama and Vanderbilt to make the playoff at 10-2 (7-1), assuming a win over Texas A&M. Keep in mind Alabama and Vanderbilt are playing elimination games.
As far as Texas A&M is concerned, the Aggies would just need to beat South Carolina, New Mexico State and Auburn to get in. They may host arch rival Texas at Kyle Field, but the Aggies would already be pretty much a lock to get in at 10-1 (7-0) heading into The Lone Star Showdown anyways. Moving forward, both teams' pathways in are right in front of them, also Texas A&M's seems far less daunting.
At this time, I would say with near certainty that Texas A&M would be a lock to make the playoff with a home win over LSU, assuming the Aggies win the next three games after that to get to 10-1 (7-0) before their home date with Texas. As far as LSU is concerned, I would say they are probably getting in with a win over Texas A&M, but it will become a certainty with either an Alabama or Vanderbilt win.
Texas A&M has the better loss and is one game further along in conference play than LSU is to date.