It sure sounds like Dana Brown is to blame for Astros losing Yusei Kikuchi

We finally got our first significant signing of the 2024 offseason on Monday, as the Los Angeles Angels got ahead of the starting pitch market by inking left-hander Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year, $63 million deal. It's yet another sign that the Angels really are serious about spending money this winter, no matter how far away from contention their roster might be. But even more interesting than where Kikuchi wound up is where he didn't — and why.

Kikuchi excelled down the stretch following a trade to the Houston Astros at this year's deadline, posting a 2.70 ERA with 76 strikeouts in 60 innings across 10 starts. Houston clearly had a plan to fix the command issues that had plagued the lefty throughout this Major League career, and it worked as well as anyone could've hoped. With the Astros likely saying goodbye to Justin Verlander this offseason, rotation depth was on GM Dana Brown's to-do list, and a reunion with Kikuchi felt like a natural fit for both sides.

And yet, Kikuchi signed elsewhere before we even reached Thanksgiving. Even more confusingly, he took a fair but hardly excessive deal with a team that isn't expected to contend for much in the near future. All of which points to one thing: It seems for all the world like Brown and the Astros simply didn't think he was worth money.

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Dana Brown, Astros not willing to meet the price for Yusei Kikuchi

MLB.com's Brian McTaggart basically confirmed as much after news of the deal broke, writing that "Kikuchi would have filled that void [in the starting rotation], but the Astros believed the price and years were too much for a mid-level starting pitcher."

Maybe that's true. Kikuchi was brilliant over two months in Houston, but he was average at best over five-plus years with the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays, flashing major upside only to unravel for weeks or months at a time. He's certainly not in the same class as Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and the other names at the top of this free-agent market. And when you consider the other priorities Brown has this offseason, you can better understand why he wasn't willing to meet Kikuchi's price.

At the same time, 21 million per year over three years is about what it costs to land a "mid-level" starter in today's market. And a mid-level starter is something the Astros could certainly use. The rotation certainly isn't in bad shape, with Framber Valdez, Ronel Blanco and Hunter Brown at the top plus back-end options like Spencer Arrighetti. But beyond that, there's pretty much nothing but question marks: Cristian Javier might not pitch at all next season as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery; Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. haven't pitched in the Majors since 2023 and 2022, respectively; and J.P. France is still working his way back from shoulder surgery in June.

Even for an organization that develops pitching as well as anyone, reinforcements are needed. The Astros have plenty of other options to pursue on the open market, and this could all look just fine by the time the Winter Meetings roll around. But Brown politely declined the chance to take an easy win, and if he's not careful, Houston could find itself out in the cold when the music stops.