The smartest NFL front offices understand that the NFL Draft is an inexact science. All-Pros have been selected throughout the draft's storied history. Plenty of first-round busts failed to live up to anything close to their pre-draft hype.
This year's draft class is no different. It's chock-full of prospects who have seen their stock fluctuate wildly over the last few months. Quarterbacks, like Jalen Milroe, have the highest variance going into Round 1. It only takes one team to fall in love with them to see them come off the board on Day One. They could also fall to Day Three if certain quarterback-needy teams prefer a different signal caller.
Front offices preparing for the draft do see certain prospects as safer bets than others. The following five prospects don't fall into that category. These players have the widest range of potential outcomes heading into the 2025 NFL Draft.
5. Jalen Milroe - QB, Alabama
ESPN expert Mina Kimes appropriately labeled Milroe as a "lottery ticket" in an interview this week. It remains to be seen what team will be willing to roll the dice on the former Alabama star.
"To me, Jalen Milroe is a lottery ticket. He's got the strongest arm of any quarterback in the draft. ... He has the agility and vision as a runner that I would put up there with the Lamar Jackson's of the world."
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) April 18, 2025
—@minakimes on Jalen Milroe's value in the upcoming NFL draft pic.twitter.com/Vdeu4owRy5
Front offices that put a premium on arm strength will be most intrigued by Milroe. He's got an absolute cannon for an arm that helps him make every throw in the playbook. The problem is that his footwork really hurts his accuracy on all levels of throws. He'll need significant work at the pro level before he's ready to be an efficient passer.
It's easy to envision a scenario where a team like the Steelers gambles on Milroe late in Round 1. If they don't, he could easily fall into Round 2 and possibly even Round 3. Quarterbacks do tend to rise in the draft but Milroe is the sort of polarizing prospect who could buck that trend if the right team doesn't lock in on taking him.
4. Shedeur Sanders - QB, Colorado
Shedeur Sanders started the pre-draft process with a real chance to be the No. 1 overall pick. Cam Ward has beaten him out for that honor, and now there are real questions about where the former Colorado signal-caller will land.
It seems like the idea that Sanders will be a top-five pick has sailed. The Browns and Giants both need new quarterbacks but neither seems to be enamored with him. The Saints at No. 9 might be the median outcome for the accurate passer as Derek Carr's status for the season is now in jeopardy.
If Sanders falls past New Orleans, there's no telling who might end his draft day fall. Some teams aren't interested in him because he lacks elite physical traits. Others point to his accuracy on the move as a potential difference-making quality at the pro level.
Plenty of teams seem to like Sanders but one is going to need to fall in love with him to justify taking him in Round 1. That franchise has not emerged yet and may not until the minute they go on the clock.
3. Shemar Stewart - EDGE, Texas A&M
If this scouting was being conducted purely on size and speed metrics, then Stewart would be in contention to be the No. 1 overall pick. Plenty of scouts love the idea of taking a 6-foot-5, 267-pound pass rusher who ran a 4.59 40-yard dash at the Combine in Round 1.
The concern about Stewart is that he wasn't very productive in college. He only managed to notch 4.5 sacks in his three years at Texas A&M. Teams might feel better if he finished his time with the Aggies on a high note. Tallying 1.5 sacks in his final campaign did not light the world afire in the SEC.
Stewart's athletic traits will allow him to be a Round 1 pick but where he goes in the round is anyone's guess. He could break into the top 10 or fall into the late 20s, depending on what teams think of his college film.
2. Tyler Booker - OG, Alabama
Milroe isn't the only Alabama prospect inspiring debate with NFL teams. Guard Tyler Booker has a really high floor as a prospect but teams are concerned about his ceiling.
That perceived lack of upside might cost him the chance to hear his name called on Day One. Booker has elite size and drive at the point of attack for the position, but his heavy feet give teams pause when evaluating him as a pass blocker. He easily projects to be a solid starter, but things get complicated when trying to forecast him ascending to become an All-Pro.
If Booker falls into the second round, he could turn into one of the draft's biggest bargains. The prospect and his team don't want to see him become that kind of value.
1. Mike Green - EDGE, Marshall
Like quarterbacks, edge rushers have a tendency to rise in the draft due to the value put on their position. Mike Green was the most productive pass-rusher in college football last season. His explosion at the point of attack has caught the eyes of the scouting community.
The problem with Green is getting a handle on how concerned teams are about his off-the-field history. He has been accused of sexual assault on two separate occasions. The latter resulted in his being suspended during his time playing for Virginia.
Green has flatly denied the accusations during the pre-draft process. His off-the-field issues are going to influence his draft stock but it's impossible to tell how much. He'll be a player to watch closely on Day 1.