Juan Soto bidding war could end up hurting Astros more than any other team

The festivities of the annual MLB Winter Meetings hadn’t even kicked off yet when the fireworks sailed high into the sky, exploding into green dollar signs against the bright blue daytime backdrop of the Dallas sky. As it turns out, we are on the precipice of history. And like most turning points in history, there is no going back.

The bidding for top free agent Juan Soto has surmounted Shohei Ohtani’s record $700 million dollar contract. He is now projected to be the highest paid figure in sports. And with Steve Cohen running up the bidding by enormous sums at a time, we might be looking at a Soto contract upwards of $750 million. Soto has had a monumental run up until this point boasting the highest career OBP of any active player and tied in that stat with American icon Mickey Mantle. But while we’re waiting to see which owner is about to sign off on a massive withdrawal, other MLB owners are waiting in anticipation for the storm to come.

Over the past decade, the price of contracts has grown exponentially culminating in this moment. It was only last offseason when Ohtani netted his unthinkable $700 million payday. This sum was for both a star pitcher and star hitter. The previous offseason saw Aaron Judge net the previous record of $360 million for his Bonds-like performance. With Soto, an elite hitter who doesn’t pitch and hasn’t won an MVP award reaping the largest contract of any sports star, the halo effect created by Cohen’s dog eat dog business mindset that has effectively disrupted the status quo is about to create shockwaves around the league.

If Soto’s fair market value was below Judge’s before Ohtani’s record-setting contract, the rest of MLB’s future star free agents will be in for a nice raise. At this juncture, owners are re-setting Soto’s value and with it the value of every other player. And while this will be painful for many teams, the Houston Astros have the biggest reason to weep.

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The Astros may not be able to afford Kyle Tucker

This past season, the Astros spent the third most in baseball. For their efforts, they finished first in the AL Central but were eliminated in the Wild Card round. If GM Dana Brown’s moves last season showed us anything, it’s that the Astros’ future involves less spending. But what does this mean for their star outfielder in Kyle Tucker?

In February of 2024, it was reported that Brown was going into extension talks with Tucker. However, these talks don’t seem to have bore any fruit. If his price then was too much for the Astros, then his price now is likely out of the question.

This past season saw Tucker struggle with injury, but he still managed to put up great numbers while on the field posting a .289/.408/.585/.993 slash line with an impressive 23 home runs in just 277 at-bats. When healthy, Tucker has shown an ability to hit for a .290 average and 30 home runs. In 2023, he stole 30 bases in 35 attempts. In 2022, his defensive prowess landed him a Gold Glove. He is set to enter free agency after the 2025 season concludes. Should extension negotiations fail, Tucker will be seen as a 5-tool player on the free agent market.

With his market price relative to Soto’s skyrocketing, he doesn’t seem to be a fit for a team that is actively trying to keep the annual payroll from rising. If he does hit the open market, big spenders that missed on Soto will likely top the Astros in bidding. But for now, we can only speculate if Soto’s contract has an irreversible effect on the MLB’s fiscal paradigm.