Auburn has spent the majority of this season ranked No. 1 in the AP Top 25. With just two losses on the season, it's difficult to poke holes in the Tigers' resume. Johni Broome is arguably the best player in the country, while their success in the rough and tumble SEC is difficult to ignore.
That has been the narrative around this college basketball season — that the SEC is far and away the deepest, most competitive conference in the nation. As of now, eight SEC teams occupy the top 25 and 12 teams are expected to crack the NCAA Tournament, per ESPN's Joe Lunardi. He also lists UGA and Oklahoma among the first four out, so the SEC could outperform even those lofty projections.
Auburn has signature wins out the wazoo, with dubs over Houston, Iowa State, Tennessee, and Alabama. Their only two losses came to Duke and Florida, who are currently ranked No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, in the AP poll.
It is one of those two losses, however, that looms large over Auburn in KenPom's current rankings. The famous analytics site has a reputation for accurately projecting March Madness contenders and highlighting potential Cinderellas months in advance. Their catch-all numbers tend to correlate strongly with the most successful postseason teams.
Right now, the No. 1 team at KenPom is not Auburn. It's Duke.
KenPom metrics rank Duke over Auburn as college basketball's best team
Duke's NetRtg at KenPom (+38.13), or adjusted efficiency margin, sits comfortably above Auburn's (+35.91). Houston (+35.16) and Florida (+34.15) are well within striking distance.
This is only a single metric, and it does not take the same things into account as AP voters, who are grading collective resumes, whereas KenPom takes a more mathematical approach. That said, it does feel notable. Cooper Flagg is currently Johni Broome's top competition for the Wooden Award, and the Blue Devils feel like the tentative favorite to unseat Auburn in March.
A lot of brackets will favor Duke next month. Some of that is blue blood bias — Duke is the most established college basketball powerhouse, with decades of prestige built into its program. That said, the Blue Devils' roster is as complete and talented as it's been in years. This is easily the most dominant group Jon Scheyer has put together since taking over for Mike Krzyzewski.
Flagg is probably the most impactful freshman since Zion Williamson. You might be able to take it back even further, citing names like Anthony Davis. The 18-year-old has every tool in his toolkit, currently carrying the second-highest usage rate among high-major freshmen at 6-foot-9. His blend of size, athleticism, scoring versatility, and playmaking has been a skeleton key for unlocking college defenses. Duke has no shortage of ways to leverage Flagg's skill set and open up the floor for his teammates.
This is still an extremely young Duke team by the standards of college basketball contenders, but there are high-impact upperclassmen in the mix, such as Tyrese Proctor and Sion James. Proctor will be participating in his third NCAA Tournament with the Blue Devils next month. The steady-handed point guard has the sort of leadership skills and experience that establish confidence in Duke's chances.
Meanwhile, all the Duke "kids" feel advanced beyond their years. Flagg is unshakably poised, with a competitive fire to rival anyone in college basketball. Kon Knueppel plays a smart, balanced brand of basketball. Even Khaman Maluach, the sort of raw, gangling freshman big who might traditionally feel like a weakness on the March Madness stage, has exceeded expectations across the board. He's a historically prolific finisher around the rim and a more disciplined defensive anchor than he gets credit for.
Auburn is the team to beat. Don't get it twisted. Broome has been through this song and dance before, and it's easy to envision the likes of Tahaad Pettiford and Chad Baker-Mazara as tourney heroes.
That said, Duke is No. 2 in KenPom's offensive rating and No. 4 in defensive rating. Auburn is No. 1 and No. 11, respectively. This is a real battle. Few teams are as deep, connected, and effective on both side of the ball as the Blue Devils. We cannot discount Scheyer's squad as a potential postseason juggernaut.