The NCAA Tournament bracket is here and the time has come for you to try and fill out your bracket. Picking that perfect Final Four is a very difficult exercise since upsets have defined March Madness, with the first weekend almost guaranteed to see one of the favorites to get to San Antonio picked off.
Whether it is lingering injuries, a bad shooting day, or running into a team that poses a matchup problem, there are plenty of reasons to fade a potential Final Four team before the Sweet 16. Let's take a look at five teams from the 2025 NCAA Tournament field that are in serious danger of getting knocked out of the dance early.
5 bracket busters looming in March Madness
Duke Blue Devils
This take will certainly be controversial as we saw the Blue Devils win the ACC Tournament without the services of Cooper Flagg, who was sidelined as a precaution after spraining his ankle in a quarterfinal win over Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils informed the Selection Committee that Flagg should be available for the NCAA Tournament, but we have no way of really knowing how healthy Flagg is until the Blue Devils take the floor again.
There were certainly rough patches for Duke in its first two games minus Flagg, as they fell into a big hole against the Yellow Jackets before nearly allowing North Carolina to come back from a 24-point deficit in the semifinals. There is still plenty of talent on Duke's roster to go deep without Flagg, but if he is limited in March Madness there is more potential for the Blue Devils to get picked off early.
The 8-9 game in the East Region sees Duke drawing either a battle-tested Mississippi State team or Baylor, which was ranked in the Top 10 of the preseason polls before an inconsistent regular season. Oregon and Arizona would be the most likely Sweet 16 opponents for the Blue Devils, who would want to have Flagg back and firing on all cylinders to win a shootout against one of those teams.
Kentucky Wildcats
The regime has changed in Kentucky but the Wildcats are back again as a potential bracket buster in March. The Wildcats busted brackets in both 2022 (when they were the first victims of St. Peter's Elite Eight run) and 2024 (when Oakland knocked out the Wildcats in the Round of 64), putting a ton of pressure on new coach Mark Pope to buck this trend of disappointment.
There have been flashes of brilliance for Kentucky this season, including a win over Duke in the Champions Classic and a sweep of Tennessee, but injuries and inconsistency have plagued the Wildcats. A big issue that was never really settled is a suspect defense that gives up almost 78 points per game and is rated as the 57th-most efficient unit in the country by KenPom, hinting at vulnerability if they get into a shootout early on.
Although the Wildcats should be able to get past Troy in the first round, seeing either 6-seed Illinois or its First Four opponent (Texas or Xavier from the 11-line) in the Round of 32 is a frightening prospect. The Fighting Illini are a team that can beat anyone when everything is clicking while Texas and Xavier have both demonstrated the ability to beat tournament-caliber competition, which should take some wind out of Kentucky's sails here.
Iowa State Cyclones
An ideal March Madness bracket pick will be playing its best basketball down the stretch, which is not the case for Iowa State. A strong start to the non-conference season, highlighted by a dramatic game where the Cyclones played very well against Auburn at the Maui Invitational, led to a 15-1 start that saw them peak at No. 2 in the AP Top 25.
Things were never quite right for Iowa State after that as they went just 9-9 over their next 18 games, a run that included losses to Oklahoma State and Kansas State, with their offensive efficiency notably declining down the stretch. Part of those struggles came against elite Big 12 teams, which is understandable, but the Cyclones haven't looked like the team that gave Auburn everything they could handle for a long time.
The Cyclones will start off with 14-seed Lipscomb before dealing with either Ole Miss, which is a very well-rounded SEC side, or a very dangerous First Four winner from the San Diego State/North Carolina matchup. Seeing Michigan State in the Sweet 16 as a two-seed is also a bad draw for Iowa State, which will be hard-pressed to counter the Spartans' depth and physicality.
Tennessee Volunteers
Anyone who watched the SEC Tournament will be surprised by the inclusion of Tennessee, which showed some incredible form in Nashville by cooling off a red-hot Texas team and beating Auburn to reach the final. While a loss against Florida is nothing to be ashamed of, the Volunteers do have to overcome the suspect tournament history of head coach Rick Barnes.
Fewer coaches do a better job of getting teams to the tournament than Barnes, who did get Tennessee to the Elite Eight last season, but he has had a lengthy history of seeing his teams underwhelm in March. Dating back to the 2009 NCAA Tournament, Barnes' teams at Texas and Tennessee have reached the dance 12 times and exited on the first weekend nine times.
The Volunteers' path through the Midwest will feature a tough second-round matchup against either UCLA, which made plenty of noise in its first year as a Big Ten member, or underrated Utah State. Surviving to the Sweet 16 means either dealing with Kentucky, which swept them during the regular season, again or one of the strong teams that takes the Wildcats out. It's not looking great for a Volunteers fan.
Wisconsin Badgers
Fewer teams are a more curious case for this tournament than the Badgers, who coasted to a strong regular season win total by beating who they were supposed to with the occasional big result (like beating Arizona in November and winning at Purdue in February), but they played a strong Big Ten tournament by topping UCLA and Michigan State to reach the final.
While those results are encouraging for the Badgers, one good weekend isn't enough to erase any lingering concerns from the regular season about Wisconsin's ability to handle elite competition. The Badgers are also very reliant on the three-point shot, taking 47.8 percent of their attempts from deep entering play on Sunday, and if their threes aren't falling this team is vulnerable to getting picked off.
The 6-11 matchup opposite Wisconsin is one of the highlight games of the first round as both BYU and VCU are very capable of putting up points like crazy. Seeing one of those battle-tested foes in the Round of 32 is a recipe for an early exit for Wisconsin, which doesn't have much of a shelf life beyond that point anyway, with 2-seed Alabama looming in the Sweet 16.