The NCAA Tournament selection committee got a lot right when seeding this year. I also felt like they missed on quite a few teams, over and underseeding several teams. That said, this year should be no different than any other year in terms of upsets.
There’s a possibility a No. 1 seed goes down again after it’s happened twice in the last seven years. But what about the other ones? Who’s on upset alert?
With the field officially set, here are my red flags for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
No. 4 seed Arizona Wildcats
Watch out, the Arizona Wildcats are on upset alert. Not too long ago, Buffalo, another MAC school, stunned Arizona in the first round of the NCAA Tournament? Could it happen again with No. 13 seeded Akron? I wouldn’t count it out.
Akron has just one loss since the new calendar year. That’s a team, even if they are a No. 13 seed, I do not want to face in a single elimination tournament. The Wildcats have some bad losses this year, but have remained one of the better teams in the Big 12.
I’m not saying they’re going to lose, but I don’t see Arizona going on a tournament run. If they’re not careful they could get bounced in the first round.
No. 5 seed Michigan Wolverines
Michigan got the short end of the stick when it came to seeding in this year’s tournament. The Wolverines won the Big Ten Tournament yet all three teams they beat in the Big Ten tournament are all seeded higher than them.
It gets worse when they get paired with one of the best double-digit seeded teams in the tournament in UC San Diego. The Tritons are playing in their first NCAA Tournament. They pretty much coasted through the season and the Big West Tournament.
While they don’t have a good strength of schedule, they did finish with a 35 NET ranking and a 4-2 record in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games. They have Michigan on upset alert because the Wolverines are inconsistent at times.
During that three-game losing stretch, which ultimately punished them and their NCAA Tournament seeding, they were blown out in two of those games. The Wolverines can play well in big games.
They were able to keep Wisconsin at bay and knock off Maryland at the buzzer. They’re a team that will either go on a deep run or end up losing early. That could be in the first round if they overlook the Tritons.
No. 6 BYU Cougars
Don’t be fooled by BYU’s late surge to leap up the Big 12 standings, the Cougars are definitely on upset alert with VCU as its match up. I think the Cougars are the better team, but VCU is known to put teams on upset alert in the NCAA Tournament.
BYU is no different. They were stomped by Houston in the Big 12, which showed they aren’t quite at that level to being a consistent team. Sure, they won seven straight games to end the regular season, but just three of them were against NCAA Tournament teams.
I’d keep a close eye on the Cougars. Don’t let their seed fool you, they aren’t a lock in this game like their No. 6 seeding appears.
No. 4 Texas A&M Aggies
Texas A&M is one of the teams I trust the least when it comes to the NCAA Tournament this year. They were a team that could contend for a No. 2 or even No. 3 seed before last week. That changed when they lost to Texas in the SEC Tournament last week.
Now, I could very well see No. 13 seed Yale taking down the Aggies. They ended the year with four losses in the final six games of the year. Then they didn’t even make it past their first game of the conference tournament.
This feels like a team that will end up getting upset in the NCAA Tournament too. The Aggies showed they can compete in the SEC, but when it comes to single elimination environments, they aren’t as strong.
No. 5 Memphis Tigers
PJ Haggerty went on a tear through the AAC Tournament, bringing Memphis a conference championship for the second time in three years. That said, when they won the conference championship in 2023, they were bounced out of the NCAA Tournament at the buzzer to Florida Atlantic.
That was another year where the Tigers felt like a team that could go on a tournament run, pull off some upsets and sneak into the Elite Eight. Yet, just like that, I was reminded that Memphis, regardless of how good they are, end up losing games they shouldn’t.
Colorado State is a team that could be a sleeper team in the tournament and that could start with a win over Memphis in the first round of the tournament. Memphis has losses to Arkansas State, Temple and Wichita State.
They are a strong team, but this could be the one game that trips them up if they aren’t careful.