College basketball's regular season is officially over and the road to Selection Sunday is approaching its end. Conference tournaments offer one last chance for teams on the bubble to make their mark on the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee, but a really weak bubble means it may not take a ton to secure a spot in the field of 68.
After a thorough scrubbing of the potential field, if chalk held right now in conference tournaments (meaning the automatic qualifiers went to top seeds) there would be six true "bubble" slots available for about 15 teams. The worst thing a bubble team can have happen is for a run of bid thieves to shrink the bubble, which was a big problem in 2024, when three bid thieves contracted a strong bubble and left several tournament-worthy teams sitting on the sidelines.
The collective bubble breathed a huge sigh of relief on Sunday when Drake polished off Arch Madness with a win over Bradley, meaning there was no risk of a 29-win Bulldogs team entering the at-large conversation. A few leagues still have bid thief potential (notably the A-10 other than VCU and the Mountain West if anyone outside of New Mexico, Utah State or San Diego State), so teams with work to do will have one eye on the court and another on the scoreboards around the country.
What does the shape of the bubble look like as we enter Champ Week? Read on to find out with a special Monday edition of FanSided's Bubble Watch.
Notes: All records, NET rankings and metrics are current at the conclusion of games played on March 9th. Strength of schedule figures (identified as SOS or NCSOS for non-conference strength of schedule in the tables) come from KenPom. The top remaining seed in any conference tournament is considered to be an automatic qualifier for the purposes of this exercise and is not eligible for today's bubble watch. Any rankings referenced are based on the Week 18 AP Top 25 poll.
March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four Byes
Team | Georgia | Baylor | Arkansas | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | SEC | Big 12 | SEC | Mountain West |
Record | 20-11 (8-10) | 18-13 (10-10) | 19-12 (8-10) | 21-8 (14-6) |
NET | 30 | 31 | 39 | 51 |
Quad 1 Record | 4-10 | 5-11 | 6-9 | 3-5 |
Quad 2 Record | 5-1 | 5-1 | 2-3 | 5-2 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 11-0 | 7-1 | 11-0 | 12-1 |
SOS | 22 | 8 | 20 | 64 |
NCSOS | 322 | 33 | 256 | 8 |
Last Game | W 79-68 Vs. Vanderbilt | L 65-61 Vs. No. 3 Houston | W 93-92 Vs. No. 25 Mississippi State | W 80-61 Vs. Nevada |
Next Game | Vs. Oklahoma 3/12 | Big 12 Tournament Quarterfinal 3/12 (Opponent TBD) | Vs. South Carolina 3/12 | Vs. Boise State 3/13 |
A four-game winning streak to end the regular season did wonders for Georgia, which has 20 wins overall, eight in the SEC and a non-conference win over St. John's in the Bahamas that has turned to liquid gold for their resume. The Bulldogs should be good regardless of their SEC Tournament results but a win over Oklahoma in the first round would likely lock it up.
A tight loss to No. 3 Houston on Saturday hurt the Bears' chances to lock up their NCAA Tournament spot but they have done enough to secure a bye into the second round of the Big 12 tournament. Either Kansas State or Arizona State awaits, and a win in that game is well advised since a loss there would add a 14th defeat to a resume you can poke holes in if you look hard enough.
A one-point win over No. 25 Mississippi State on Saturday represented a sixth Quad 1 victory for Arkansas, which is trending towards being the 12th SEC team in the field after weathering a five-game losing streak in January. The only reason the Razorbacks aren't fully safe yet is they have to play South Carolina in the first round of the SEC Tournament, a team they lost to by 19 points less than two weeks ago, and a second loss to the Gamecocks would put John Calipari's team on thin ice.
San Diego State overcame a bad loss to UNLV by winning against Nevada by 19 to wrap the regular season, setting up a matchup with fellow bubbler Boise State to kick off the Mountain West Tournament. While the Aztecs are ahead of the Broncos for now due to a better overall resume, losing that game could cause the committee to flip the two on the overall seed list and put San Diego State in danger of getting passed before Selection Sunday.
March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four In
Team | Indiana | Xavier | Ohio State | Boise State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | Big Ten | Big East | Big Ten | Mountain West |
Record | 19-12 (10-10) | 21-10 (13-7) | 17-14 (9-11) | 22-9 (14-6) |
NET | 52 | 44 | 36 | 45 |
Quad 1 Record | 4-12 | 1-8 | 6-11 | 2-5 |
Quad 2 Record | 5-0 | 8-2 | 3-3 | 4-2 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 10-0 | 12-0 | 8-0 | 15-2 |
SOS | 25 | 60 | 13 | 88 |
NCSOS | 131 | 217 | 90 | 123 |
Last Game | W 66-60 Vs. Ohio State | W 76-68 Vs. Providence | L 66-60 At Indiana | L 83-73 Vs. Colorado State |
Next Game | Vs. Oregon 3/13 | Vs. No. 20 Marquette 3/13 | Vs. Iowa 3/12 | Vs. San Diego State 3/13 |
A win over Ohio State on Saturday was big for Indiana, which now leapfrogs the Buckeyes to move closer to safety on Selection Sunday. 12 Quad 1 losses is a lot for the committee to weigh against the Hoosiers, however, so adding another Quad 1 win by beating Oregon in their first Big Ten Tournament game on Thursday (avenging a loss at Oregon last week) would be a good idea.
The X-Men are hot, finishing the regular season on a seven-game winning streak, a run that includes a convincing victory against NCAA Tournament-bound Creighton. The 1-8 Quad 1 record is deceptive since two of Xavier's best wins (against Creighton and UCONN) fall into the Quad 2 bucket, but they have a good opportunity to improve their resume by beating No. 20 Marquette (the source of their only Quad 1 win) again at Madison Square Garden on Thursday.
Ohio State is sliding at the wrong time, dropping four of their final six games to hit the Big Ten Tournament with 14 losses. Despite some good work against Quad 1, losing to Iowa in their Big Ten Tournament opener (and it won't be easy since Iowa knocked Nebraska out of the Big Ten Tournament and the bubble with a win on Sunday) would leave the Buckeyes a very nervous 17-15 on Selection Sunday.
The last team in for now is Boise State, which showed promise of late with home wins against New Mexico and Utah State but ceded some momentum with a 10-point home loss to Colorado State to end the regular season. Losing their Mountain West Tournament opener to fellow bubbler San Diego State would leave the Broncos vulnerable to getting passed before Selection Sunday.
March Madness Bubble Watch - First Four Out
Team | Oklahoma | Texas | Colorado State | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | SEC | SEC | Mountain West | Big 12 |
Record | 19-12 (6-12) | 17-14 (6-12) | 22-9 (16-4) | 17-14 (7-13) |
NET | 47 | 42 | 54 | 50 |
Quad 1 Record | 6-10 | 5-10 | 1-5 | 1-11 |
Quad 2 Record | 4-1 | 3-4 | 6-2 | 8-3 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 9-1 | 9-0 | 13-2 | 8-0 |
SOS | 16 | 27 | 89 | 47 |
NCSOS | 319 | 349 | 126 | 312 |
Last Game | W 76-72 At Texas | L 76-72 Vs. Oklahoma | W 83-73 At Boise State | L 78-67 At Oklahoma State |
Next Game | Vs. Georgia 3/12 | Vs. Vanderbilt 3/12 | Mountain West Tournament Quarterfinal (Opponent TBD) | Vs. Oklahoma State 3/11 |
Oklahoma won its last two games to improve to 6-12 in the SEC, but making the field finishing six games below .500 in league play would set a precedent (as we mentioned in a recent edition of Bubble Watch) that the committee may want to mark at this time. Stacking up more wins in the SEC Tournament, beginning with Wednesday's first-round game against Georgia, could help sway a few undecided minds in the room.
Texas has faded hard down the stretch, dropping seven of their past nine games to slide out of the field entirely. With 14 losses overall, the Longhorns need to start winning again in the SEC Tournament to show they are a viable March Madness entrant, beginning against Vanderbilt on Wednesday.
The anti-Texas, Colorado State has heated up down the stretch, winning 12 of their last 14 games and picking up key wins over Utah State and at Boise State to end the regular season. Snagging the 2-seed in the Mountain West Tournament was unfortunate for the Rams, who will have to win a game that won't help their resume to advance to a potential third meeting with Utah State in the semifinals.
Cincinnati's rep as Quad 2 merchants took a big hit in the last week of the regular season when they lost to Kansas State and at Oklahoma State, putting a big hit on their resume ahead of the Big 12 Tournament. With Oklahoma State coming back for their opener, the Bearcats have to win multiple games to feel good about their odds of hearing their name called on Selection Sunday.
March Madness Bubble Watch - Next Four Out
Team | North Carolina | Dayton | San Francisco | UC Irvine |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | ACC | Atlantic 10 | West Coast | Big West |
Record | 20-12 (13-7) | 22-9 (12-6) | 24-8 (13-5) | 27-5 (17-3) |
NET | 40 | 67 | 64 | 62 |
Quad 1 Record | 1-11 | 3-3 | 1-5 | 1-0 |
Quad 2 Record | 7-0 | 4-5 | 3-3 | 3-3 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 12-1 | 14-1 | 19-0 | 22-2 |
SOS | 41 | 93 | 99 | 141 |
NCSOS | 6 | 57 | 213 | 65 |
Last Game | L 82-69 Vs. No. 2 Duke | W 79-76 At VCU | W 86-75 Vs. Washington State | W 97-88 At Santa Barbara |
Next Game | ACC Tournament Second Round 3/12 (Opponent TBD) | Atlantic 10 Tournament Quarterfinal 3/14 (Opponent TBD) | Vs. Gonzaga 3/10 | Big West Tournament Quarterfinal 3/14 (Opponent TBD) |
North Carolina let a golden opportunity slip through its fingers by blowing a lead to No. 2 Duke in the second half to drop to 1-11 in Quad 1 games, a prohibitive total for entry into the field regardless of how hard the Tar Heels scheduled. The loss to the Blue Devils also dropped the Tar Heels into the second round of the ACC Tournament, but they realistically have to win the ACC's auto-bid to go dancing as wins against a combo of Notre Dame or Pitt followed by Wake Forest isn't enough to move the needle.
Speaking of moving said needle, Dayton put themselves back on the bubble by picking up the most impressive win the A-10 has to offer with a road victory at VCU. The Flyers do have victories over UCONN and Marquette to hang their hats on and have a reasonable path to the A-10 tournament final, where a strong effort against VCU could allow them to swipe a bid from someone else on this page.
We have some bid thief potential in the West Coast Conference as San Francisco won its quarterfinal matchup, setting up a date with Gonzaga in the semifinals on Monday night. The Dons are the only team in the WCC to beat Saint Mary's this season and are two wins away from turning this into a three-bid league, which would shrink the bubble by one as San Francisco's resume likely isn't strong enough to get in with a loss either to Gonzaga or Saint Mary's in the final.
The campaign for a two-bid Big West is sure to heat up this week as UC Irvine carries a 27-5 record into the conference tournament and split with regular season champ UC San Diego, another popular bubble team. If these two meet in the Big West final and the Anteaters lose, they will have a compelling argument as a 29-win team that deserves a shot over a .500-ish SEC or Big 10 squad that had plenty of opportunities to distinguish themselves over the course of the regular season.