The Masters cut line prediction 2026: DeChambeau, Rahm on the razor's edge

At the risk of stating the obvious, to win the Masters, you first have to make the cut and play the weekend at Augusta National Golf Club. Making the cut is much easier said than done, though, especially when have conditions like the ones for the 2026 Masters Tournament. We saw big names like Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Min Woo Lee, and others take the firm, fast golf course on, with Augusta coming out on top. And now, after paltry starts to the tournament, they might be on the wrong side of the Masters cut line.

That begs the question, though: What will the Masters cut line be in 2026? That won't be determined until the final shot is hit in the second round on Friday, of course. However, based on the scoring we've seen and the conditions, along with some models, we can make our best prediction for where the cut line will end up.

The Masters cut line prediction for 2026 at Augusta

The Masters cut line will be at +4 when we get through 36 holes at Augusta. The latest numbers and model from Data Golf have the likeliest probabilities for +3 and +4 as the cut line this year as we're in the middle of Round 1, giving a 27.4% chance that it ends up at +3 and a 38.4% chance that we'll get to +4.

Having said that, we're predicting that we end up on the worse score of the two highest probabilities because of the way that things have been trending throughout the first round. Earlier, the two highest chances were actually of +2 and +3. Since then, the probability of the cut being +2 has actually gone by the wayside and we're actually seeing a 21.2% chance that it climbs to +5.

Given the conditions we've seen this year at Augusta, though, that does make a great deal of sense. The lack of rain over the weeks leading into the Masters made the course (specifically the greens) extremely firm and fast. More than that, there was just enough wind on Thursday to give the players some fits in trying to navigate the golf course. As such, we've simply seen difficult scoring conditions that will obviously push the cut line higher.

But +4 feels like the safest bet for a predicted line given what we've seen and the possibility of conditions being a little less tiresome, particularly in regard to the wind, on Friday.

What are the cut rules at the Masters?

The cut rules for the Masters Tournament are that the Top 50 and ties after 36 holes will make it to play the weekend at Augusta. That's one of the most unique set of rules for the weekend cut that you'll see in golf, largely because of the field size that we see at the Masters.

With only 91 players in the field this year at Augusta and with the field typically sitting in the low-to-mid 90s annually, it wouldn't make much sense to have even the standard PGA Tour cut line that we see every week of the Top 65 and ties. At that point, you're not even cutting close to half of the field to make it into the weekend. Thus, going to the Top 50 and ties is sensible given those circumstances.

There is one major change that we've seen at the Masters, which some golf fans might remember, is that there used to be a 10-shot rule. Previously, any player who was within 10 shots of the leader after 36 holes, even if they weren't in the Top 50, would still make the cut. Before the 2020 Masters, however, that rule was eliminated from being used and hasn't been back in effect since.

As for how the cut rules at the Masters compare to the other four major championships, they all three see either the Top 65 or Top 70 and ties make it to play the weekend, but they also have fields that surpass 150 total players, almost double of what we see at Augusta.

Masters cut line for the last 15 years

It's fun to look back at the Masters cut lines over the years, simply because you can almost perfectly see how Augusta was playing in a given year. Yes, most of the numbers are in the range of +2 to +6, but there are some outliers, particularly with low scores.

For instance, the 2020 Masters in which Dustin Johnson won with a record-setting score of 20-under, the cut line was at even par. With that year's tournament being played in November due to COVID, Augusta didn't have the same level of firmness and bite that we're used to seeing, and players were simply able to score far better than in normal years. But on the other hand, we have a year like 2024 when the cut was at +6 as only two players finished better than 5-under for the week.

It's all about the conditions, which is what makes the Masters even more special. Despite being played on the same course, things can change every year.