Due to Juan Soto's underlying metrics, I've been beating the breakout drum for over a week now. It's coming, and now we have some more historical data to further reinforce the belief that Soto is about to go crazy.
Last week, I touched on Juan Soto's imminent breakout, and the stars continue to align for that outcome to become reality. A glance at Soto's Baseball Savant page will show you what I'm talking about. He is near the top of the league in many expected stats, including xBA, and is also near the top in hard-hit rate while owning a low BABIP, two stats I like to compare when measuring if a player is getting unlucky.
Currently, Soto's Batting Average on Balls in Play, or BABIP, is .267, which is 37 below his career norm. At the time of my original article, Soto's hard-hit rate was in the 74th percentile, and the pot was simmering. Now, he sits in the 90th percentile, and the pot is boiling. His xBA has also risen from .255 to .268, indicating more of the same bad luck I outlined previously.
Soto's 14% strikeout rate is also above-average, as his top-90 percentile marks in BB%, chase%, squared-up%, and average exit velocity. Pitchers across the board have been extremely fortunate to limit Soto to the production he has recorded, but once he breaks through, it will elevate this team to new heights.
For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murrayās work onĀ TheBaseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the Discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB season.Ā
Mets offensive production will soon skyrocket
As soon as Soto busts out, this offense, which has already been clicking without results from Soto, will soar to new heights. We're about to see what we knew the Mets would be when they initially signed Soto. Still, given how strong the team's pitching staff has been, there will be no reason to look at the Mets' easier strength of schedule to begin the year and not believe they are a true contender in the National League.
Speaking of that schedule, things are due to toughen up for the Mets moving forward, with the team scheduled to play Arizona, the Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and Los Angeles Dodgers in May. Soto's breaking out now comes at the perfect time, allowing the Mets to keep succeeding atop the NL East.