After sweeping the Philadelphia Phillies earlier this week, the New York Mets have proved that their lighter-than-average strength of schedule to this point meant nothing. They currently own an MLB-best 18-7 record, and have done precisely what any team should do against the less competitive teams in the league.
If the Phillies were the first "real test" for the Mets, they passed with flying colors, beating both Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola this week. and the scary part is that there are multiple reasons why this team should get even better as the season progresses.
Let's with the elephant in the room: It's crystal clear pitchers are trying to handle Juan Soto differently than they have in the past. He doesn't have Aaron Judge behind him anymore, but all that has done is help Pete Alonso to a fantastic start to the season. Soto is slashing just .233/.364/.389 in his first 25 games, but you'll be met with a world of disagreement from any analyst if you think this slower stretch will continue. The heater is coming, and when it does, it will pair an elite pitching staff with an offense that will begin to click on all cylinders:
Juan Soto percentiles:
- Squared-up %: 94th percentile
- Average exit velocity: 86th percentile
- Chase %: 87th pecentile
- xBA: .255
- Hard-hit rate: 74th percentile
- BABIP: .250 (Career .303)
To have an expected batting average higher than your actual, along with being near the top of the league in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, is a clear sign that Mets fans should brace for an offensive outburst. On top of that, with .300 being widely regarded as around league average for batting average on balls in play, Soto's .250 BABIP further solidifies the sense that this is just some bad luck.
Perhaps Soto's .308 ISO and .450 wOBA against right-handed fastballs, a pitch thrown at a 31% clip to lefties from players like Jake Irvin on Friday night, will do the trick, and if not, Saturday's fastball-heavy (69% usage) matchup against Brad Lord could also be the inflection point. Either way, pencil me in for two Soto bombs against the Washington Nationals this weekend.
Soto's imminent breakout isn't the only reason this team is for real
Aside from Soto, let's talk about the injuries. The Mets are still without Jeff McNeil, Francisco Alvarez, a potential stud in Ronny Mauricio and one of their best starters from a season ago, Sean Manaea. The big fish for me is Manaea, who takes this already superb pitching staff to even higher levels. Last season, the lefty was a core piece of this team's rotation, and getting him back, along with what will be a more productive offense, is the perfect equation for why this team is built to win.
If the Mets fell flat on their faces against the Phillies, we might be singing a different tune. Instead, they put the league on notice, showing that their historic start is not a fluke. There's very little reason to believe this team will regress, and if their offense does indeed pick up, it will be hard to find a way to stop this team.