Mets pass on Tanner Scott for former division rival with some glaring red flags

The New York Mets addressed their lineup by signing Juan Soto and addressed their rotation by re-signing Sean Manaea, but the team had not yet added a big name to their bullpen. Tanner Scott, the best reliever on the market, made all the sense in the world for a group that needed a reliable left-hander.

The Mets instead wound up passing on Scott, instead coming to terms with former Atlanta Braves reliever A.J. Minter, according to Andy Martino of SNY.

ESPN's Jeff Passan reported that it's a two-year pact worth $22 million, including an opt-out after the first year. The Mets signed arguably the second-best left-handed reliever on the market, and got him at a very reasonable year and dollar figure. While the signing looks close to perfect in theory, Minter comes with some concerning red flags.

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Mets pass on Tanner Scott for A.J. Minter to fortify bullpen

Ever since his breakout in the shortened 2020 season, Minter has been one of the most underrated relievers in the sport, posting a sparkling 2.85 ERA, ranking in the top 30 among qualified relievers in both innings pitched (243) and appearances (267) while also ranking 11th in fWAR (5.1). Again, he has been one of the better late-game relievers in the league for a while.

With that being said, though, there are some causes for concern with this signing. First, Minter's strikeout rate has dipped each of the last three seasons from 34.7 percent in 2022 to just 26.1 percent in 2024. His fastball velocity has also diminished in each of the last three seasons, going from averaging 96.6 mph with that pitch in 2022 to just 94.5 mph in 2024.

Some of this can be explained by his hip injury which cost him a large portion of the 2024 season, but two rebuttals. First, Minter's velocity and strikeout rate both declined in 2023 when he was fully healthy. Second, should the Mets be eager to sign someone who just missed half of the season due to injury when Scott is out there for the taking?

Sure, Minter did post a 2.62 ERA in 2024, but he also had a 4.45 FIP and allowed six home runs in just 34.1 innings of work in addition to the velocity and strikeout rate dips.

At his best, Minter is the dominant left-handed reliever that the Mets bullpen has lacked really since Aaron Loup's one-year cameo back in 2021. Stealing that kind of reliever away from one of their biggest rivals is an added bonus. If Minter gets results, nobody will or should care about his velocity or how he records his outs. However, there's reason to believe that the 31-year-old might be trending downwards. If that's the case, the Mets might end up regretting not paying a bit more to sign Scott, a better reliever who is one year younger than Minter and is coming off of his best season.

With all of that being said, the term and AAV for a reliever of Minter's track record is more than fair. The deal itself is probably a risk worth taking. However, with Scott still available, it remains to be seen if the Mets chose right, here. Hopefully, Minter fills the void this bullpen had prior to his arrival, and Scott lands somewhere far away from the NL East.