Early Monday, the New York Mets announced that righty Frankie Montas had been shut down due to a lat injury. At first, the significance — and more importantly, the timetable for return — was unknown. But soon, the New York Post's Jon Heyman had provided more context on how just long the Mets can expect to be without Montas, and it doesn't sound good.
High grade lat strain for Frankie Montas, Mets announced. Will be shut down 6-6 weeks, then need a full spring training
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) February 17, 2025
Heyman means 6-8 weeks, and with a full ramp-up tacked on to that timeframe, the best guess at a Montas return would be at some point in mid-May (assuming there are no further setbacks in his recovery). Given that New York's rotation was a question mark to begin with, losing Montas means that fans and media are going to kick the trade rumor machine into overdrive — no bigger name has been floated recently than San Diego Padres ace Dylan Cease.
It would be advisable that the Mets add to their rotation, which boasts a top four of Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, David Peterson, and Clay Holmes. From there, the fifth spot is currently vacant, with veterans like Paul Blackburn and Griffin Canning not inspiring a ton of confidence. Still, leveraging the team's newly revamped farm system and moving players who are a critical part of the organization's future is not in the cards for David Stearns.
Blackburn, Canning and Tylor Megill are the main options internally, with top prospect Brandon Sproat also an option with a strong spring. Even if that approach doesn't earn as many wins until mid-May, the asking price for Cease is a non-starter. The Mets are still good enough to coast to the trade deadline as buyers, and adding Cease isn't worth the cost.
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Dylan Cease trade just as unlikely for Mets as it was yesterday
If the Mets make a trade, it won't be a blockbuster, so don't expect the answer to come from San Diego. The Padres want to shed payroll, but they're more likely to do so in the form of closer Robert Suarez. GM AJ Preller still wants to compete for the NL West Division Title, so it's not as easy as just going and "helping the Padres out" by taking some salary and a pending free agent off of their hands.
The Mets will still have to pay a premium for him, and given that the Padres would have the leverage here, it's unrealistic for them to come down on their asking price. As mentioned above, Stearns will not sell the farm for one year of Cease, who is almost sure not to sign any extension just a year away from cashing in on the open market.
New York, of course, have surprised us in the past. This trade, however, would be a move no one expected. The Padres recently asked for Sproat, Luisangel Acuna, and top infield prospect Jett Williams for Cease. That asking price was laughable at best, and it's hard to envision the Mets allowing themselves to get robbed after losing what projects to be their fifth starter.