Michael Penix Jr. prediction comes with a caveat before Falcons fans get too excited

The best thing of many the Atlanta Falcons have going for them next season has to be Michael Penix Jr. While he is only 1-2 as an NFL starter, Penix showed flashes of brilliance in his limited action for the Dirty Birds last season. The former No. 8 overall pick out of Washington certainly checked all the boxes the Atlanta brass need to see to be all-in on him next year. Kirk Cousins should be gone soon.

Even more interesting, ESPN insider Jeremy Fowler said Penix is his pick to be a breakout star next NFL season. He cited that Atlanta has a great supporting cast around him, as well as the Falcons playing in a very winnable NFC South. Fowler may have been alone in his pick of Penix, but other ESPN employees firmly believe the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be a major regression candidate.

However, I think before we give the Falcons more credit than they deserve, the team must do three things. In the offseason, general manager Terry Fontenot needs to get Penix one more weapon in the receiving corps, as well as reshuffle the deck defensively. Head coach Raheem Morris may favor that side of the ball, but he needs to level up in the second year of his second run as Atlanta's head coach.

If Atlanta can do all of these things, there is no telling how bright the future can be in Flowery Branch.

Michael Penix Jr. is tabbed as a major breakout star of 2025 NFL season

No doubt about it. There is so much to love about Penix as an emerging NFL star quarterback. He has banked a boatload of college football starts at Indiana and Washington, winning at a high level at both Power Four schools. Penix can move a little around the pocket, but he firmly identifies as a pocket passer, aiming to be more precise with his powerful left arm. He also makes his teammates better.

It is why I am not as concerned about the Falcons adding another receiving weapon as I am about Fontenot revamping the defense, as well as Morris leveling up as a head coach. I trust Penix to get the most out of the offensive talent around him. If he can do what made Matt Ryan so special, as in he got the absolute best out of every offensive weapon he played with, then Atlanta has another superstar.

Unfortunately, I have seen very little that leads me to believe that Fontenot is going to get it right on the defensive side of the ball, nor do I think Morris has the quantum leap in him as a head coach. Again, I would love nothing more than to be totally wrong in those two departments. This is the NFL team I root for and know the best. I just know what I have signed up for in being a Falcons fan for life.

If there is any glimmer of hope for the Falcons to get the two things truly out of Penix's control right, I think bringing back Jeff Ulbrich as defensive coordinator could take some pressure off Morris. I was not the biggest fan of Morris hiring his friend and former Atlanta colleague, but I can understand it from a continuity standpoint. It feels safe. It is better to be safe than sorry for the Falcons defensively.

What will really be the big test of whether the Penix/Morris era of Falcons football is a huge success is if Fontenot can get exponentially better at drafting defensive talent, especially on day two. He seems to nail most of his first-round picks, but those have all been on the offensive of the ball. Atlanta needs Pro Bowl-caliber players in rounds two and three, not yet another work-in-progress, college flameout.

Penix gives Atlanta the shot at a bright future, but his presence must force the Falcons to be better.