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First Pitch: What early returns tell us about Soto, Burnes, Fried and MLB’s top moves

Enough time has gone by to regrade some of the MLB offseason's biggest free agency signings.
May 5, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; New York Mets outfielder Juan Soto in the eighth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
May 5, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; New York Mets outfielder Juan Soto in the eighth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

This past offseason's free agency was one for the record books, to say the least. Juan Soto wound up signing the richest contract in professional sports history, spurning the New York Yankees in the process. The Los Angeles Dodgers added even more star power to a roster that had just won the World Series. The Boston Red Sox finally spent some money, and they hope to see the results follow.

While most of the major signings will cover the next half-decade or longer, MLB fans don't have the patience to wait that long to judge contracts fully, fair or not. Given that a month has gone by, it feels appropriate to give an early grade on how the biggest stars have done so far.

  1. Pete Alonso is making the league pay for passing on him in free agency
  2. Red Sox have gotten what they paid for with Alex Bregman, for the most part
  3. Corbin Burnes' start gives Diamondbacks some reason to be concerned
  4. The Yankees would be lost without Max Fried
  5. Juan Soto has been good, but not quite as advertised for the Mets

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Pete Alonso is making the league pay for passing on him in free agency

Remember when Pete Alonso went unsigned into mid-February? How in the world did that happen? MLB teams were understandably hesitant when it came to paying a first baseman over the age of 30 coming off his worst season, but he has been lighting the world on fire ever since inking a two-year, $52 million deal to return to the New York Mets.

He might not be on pace to top his career high of 53 home runs, but Alonso is playing a better all-around brand of baseball than he ever has. He entered Wednesday's action slashing .341/.463/.659 with nine home runs and 34 RBI. He's expected to be among the league leaders in home runs, but Alonso is leading the league in batting, hits, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and RBI.

Sure, it's only early May, and Alonso likely won't win the batting title, but this is clearly a different hitter. He has struck out just one more time than he has walked, which is extraordinary for a guy known for being a prolific power bat. Alonso hitting the ball hard is one thing, but he's chasing and whiffing less than he ever has. Zeroing in on his pitch has worked wonderfully. He might slow down a tad, but there's every reason to believe he'll be in the MVP conversation which, again, is insane considering how his free agency played out.

Alonso has an opt-out after this season, which he will surely exercise. Whether the Mets want to give him a long-term deal remains to be seen, but chances are, some team out there will be willing to give this version of Alonso a bag, and deservingly so.

Red Sox have gotten what they paid for with Alex Bregman, for the most part

Alex Bregman, much like Alonso, saw his free agency get dragged out for far too long and, for the most part, is making the league pay for not meeting his lofty asking price. The Boston Red Sox are the beneficiaries of that.

When he signed with Boston, there was every reason to get excited about his bat, given how perfect a fit his swing is for Fenway Park. Through his first 36 games, Bregman is slashing .315/.393/.580 with eight home runs and 27 RBI, living up to his three-year, $120 million contract and then some. He's off to as good of a start as he ever has gotten off to at the plate, but his defense, somewhat surprisingly, has not lived up to expectations.

Not only is Bregman in the 26th percentile in OAA according to Baseball Savant, but he has committed five errors already. For reference, Bregman was in the 91st percentile in OAA last season and committed 10 errors in 142 games at third base, winning a Gold Glove award in the process.

There's every reason to believe that the normally sure-handed Bregman will settle in defensively, and when he does, his grade will go higher. Other than the defense, though, there's been very little for Red Sox fans to complain about with their third baseman. Bregman exercising his opt-out much like Alonso isn't as unlikely as once thought.

Corbin Burnes' start gives Diamondbacks some reason to be concerned

Perhaps the biggest shock of the winter saw the Arizona Diamondbacks come out of nowhere and win the Corbin Burnes sweepstakes, inking the four-time All-Star to a six-year, $210 million deal. He didn't get the most total dollars of the starting pitcher free agents, but he did get the highest AAV.

The start to his Diamondbacks tenure has been uneven at best. On one hand, he has a respectable 3.58 ERA through his six starts and 32.2 innings of work. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in all but one of his appearances. There are three major concerns, though.

First, Burnes is walking more batters than he ever has. His 12.1 percent walk rate is nearly double his 6.1 percent mark from last season, and has him in the 18th percentile according to Baseball Savant. He has issued at least three free passes in four of his first six starts after doing so seven times in 32 starts last season.

Second, Burnes' strikeout rate is at a career low 20.0 percent. That has him in the 38th percentile according to Baseball Savant and is over three percent lower than his mark from last season. That's the last thing a team wants to see from a 30-year-old in the first year of a mega-deal.

Third, and most alarmingly, Burnes is dealing with right shoulder inflammation and missed a start as a result. He expects to make his next start and avoid the IL, but a shoulder injury one month in for a guy who has been able to stay healthy for the most part is concerning.

It might be harsh to give a guy with a passable ERA a C-, but the warning signs are there that this can spiral out of control. Hopefully, Burnes rights the ship sooner rather than later.

The Yankees would be lost without Max Fried

To me, it was a very questionable decision for the New York Yankees to go from losing Juan Soto to then making Max Fried their marquee signing. Fried is awesome, but it felt as if the Yankees needed to sign a big bat to pair with Aaron Judge in the middle of their order. Injuries to Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil completely changed the equation, and Fried has been a godsend for this team.

The southpaw has a league-leading 1.01 ERA through seven starts and 44.2 innings of work. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in every one of his starts and has not allowed a single earned run in four of his seven appearances, including each of the last three times he's taken the mound. The Yankees have gone a perfect 7-0 in his starts, unsurprisingly.

There's reason to question how an eight-year deal might age for a 31-year-old, but the Yankees are a team trying to win right now. Fried has not only been the best pitcher signed in free agency, but he'd be the front-runner to win the AL Cy Young award.

Had they not signed Fried, this Yankees team that already lacks starting pitching depth would be in serious trouble. He's the reason why they've been able to remain afloat, and he deserves immense credit for that.

Juan Soto has been good, but not quite as advertised for the Mets

If you went strictly off vibes, you'd think Juan Soto was hitting like the worst player in the majors. Instead, though, while he obviously has not performed like the $765 million superstar, he has not been bad for the Mets.

He entered Wednesday's action slashing .254/.384/.433 with five home runs and 14 RBI, and he tacked a pair of home runs onto his ledger in Wednesday's game. For normal players, that'd be perfectly fine. For Soto, it's been a bit disappointing.

Soto entered Wednesday's action with just four hits in 29 at-bats with runners in scoring position, and has not made the improvements he seemed so determined to make defensively, leaving a bit of a sour taste in fans' mouths. With that being said, he's gotten on base nearly 40 percent of the time, and he's done that while not looking quite like the Soto of old.

His numbers might be a bit iffy relative to expectations, but unlike Burnes, his expected stats suggest that a breakout is coming sooner rather than later. The slumping version of Soto has been good, and it's only a matter of time before things become great.