MLB insider has a $500 million plan for Mets offseason — without signing Juan Soto

A consequential offseason awaits the New York Mets, whose underdog run culminated with a scrappy NLCS loss to the eventual world champs. It feels like nobody can reach the Los Angeles Dodgers right now, but that simply is not true. Baseball is forever unpredictable and the Mets, equipped with their own MVP candidate in Francisco Lindor and baseball's most ambitious owner, sure feel like a solid bet to challenge the Dodgers' crown in 2025.

That said, this offseason could swing a number of different directions for the Mets. Pretty much the entire starting rotation, minus Kodai Senga, is eligible for free agency. Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana all have the option to leave for greener pastures. Meanwhile, the centerpiece of New York's offense over the last six years, Pete Alonso, is expected to field competitive offer sheets from across the MLB.

There's a version of this winter that ends with the Mets severely depleted and struggling to keep pace in a competitive NL East. There is also a version of this winter that ends with the Mets stacking up toe-to-toe with LA on paper, boasting the most star-studded roster on the east coast. Steve Cohen, David Stearns, and the front office would surely prefer — and will certainly aim for — the latter.

Juan Soto has been the most popular name connected to the Mets, and poaching him from the Yankees would be extra sweet. That said, if his contracts balloons past $600 or $700 million, the Mets could be best served splitting those resources between multiple stars.

Jim Bowden of The Athletic expects New York to end up taking the latter route.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB offseason.

Mets whiff on Juan Soto but add trio of All-Stars in bold offseason prediction

With the expectation that Soto re-signs with the Yankees on a $622 million contract, Bowden believes the Mets will focus on restocking their rotation before re-upping Pete Alonso.

"The Mets focus on starting pitching in free agency and manage to sign both Corbin Burnes and Max Fried to long-term contracts while also bringing back first baseman Pete Alonso, dropping more than half a billion in future salary commitments to land the trio," he writes.

That is an ambitious but potentially fruitful $500 million plan. Mets fans probably want New York to boost the offense beyond simply re-signing Alonso, but New York's lineup was extremely balanced and explosive down the stretch. There wasn't a more productive back-half of a lineup in the postseason, with the possible exception of the Dodgers.

Alonso's slugging was key to the Mets' deep run in October and he's beloved in that fanbase. Keeping him around would be good for morale and it would ensure that New York doesn't lose its most dependable source of RBIs, walks, and extra-base thwacks.

As for Corbin Burnes and Max Fried, that is a scary proposition for the rest of the National League — especially in the East division. The Braves straight up lose Fried to their division rival, which is a tough break. Meanwhile, the Phillies' stacked rotation suddenly looks fallible when juxtaposed to the three-man gauntlet of Burnes, Senga, and Fried, with the potential return of Manaea or Severino also factored in.

This is not to say the Mets shouldn't sign Soto, but sometimes it's best to prioritize quantity over quality when you're shelling out dough for All-Stars. Three high-level All-Stars could potentially mean more in the postseason than the very best All-Star by his lonesome. Burnes is a postseason workhorse of the highest order, Fried has a World Series under his belt, and Alonso is the beating heart of this Mets team.

Soto or not, this outcome would qualify as a huge success for the Mets front office.