MLB Insider: What's true and what's not about Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s future in Toronto

The rumor mill surrounding Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is all over the place.

There has been trade speculation in media reports surrounding the Toronto Blue Jays star. The Blue Jays have talked to Guerrero Jr. and his camp about a potential extension, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported. There is also the possibility that the Blue Jays don’t extend Guerrero Jr. now and he becomes a free agent after the 2025 season.

So which is most likely?

What will the Blue Jays pull off with Vladimir Guerrero Jr?

The possibility that Guerrero Jr. plays out the 2025 season without a long-term contract in place appears the most realistic. After watching Juan Soto sign a $765 million contract, Guerrero Jr. surely understands that a massive payday awaits him in free agency. Signing an extension now, and not testing the market in a year, would potentially cost him hundreds of millions as a bidding war surely looms.

It makes sense for the Blue Jays to attempt to retain Guerrero Jr. now. Signing him long-term would ensure he’s the face of the franchise for the next decade, if not longer. Signing him would help recruit elite free agents to Toronto, something the franchise has struggled with after the failed pursuits of Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto. And it would give Toronto some certainty on a roster that features little of it after the 2025 season.

On the open market, Guerrero Jr. could land a contract near $500 million — and potentially more. He’s only 25 years old. He’s coming off a season in which he hit .323/.396/.544 with 30 home runs and 103 RBI. He posted a career-low in strikeouts (minimum of 156 games). He’s also hit a whopping .288/.363/.500 with 160 home runs and 507 RBI in six seasons (819 games).

There’s reason to believe that Guerrero Jr.’s best baseball is ahead of him. And if the Blue Jays really wanted to keep him, they should have been far more aggressive in extending him in previous years rather than waiting until now. Waiting to this point could very well cost them the opportunity to retain the best player on the team, which would only add to the uncertainty after the 2025 season.

This brings me to last year's trade deadline when the Blue Jays signaled to teams that it had no interest in trading Guerrero Jr. or even Bo Bichette.

Trading Guerrero Jr. at the time would have signaled punting on the 2024 and 2025 seasons, and that message would have been heard loud and clear in the locker room. But trading Guerrero Jr. with 1.5 years of control remaining on his contract would have 1) helped Toronto build a sustainable winner and 2) restocked their farm system.

Now, they have Guerrero Jr. under contract for one more season with no certainty he will stay and a roster full of holes. It’s led to significant questions about the Blue Jays’ short and long-term outlooks. It has hurt them in luring free agents to Toronto, and it very well may lead to Guerrero Jr., easily their best player, leaving for another team next winter.