MLB Insider: Why Juan Soto, Roki Sasaki could hold up free agent market

Last year, the frustration among baseball people regarding the slow MLB offseason was palpable. Shohei Ohtani lingered on the market. Some of the other higher end options, mainly represented by Scott Boras, remained free agents until the regular season.

There’s a possibility for yet another slow winter this offseason, with Juan Soto (a Boras client) a free agent. 

Soto has reportedly started taking meetings with teams, with interested suitors including the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox and others. Boras is known for waiting out the market in search of the most money for his clients. And he will surely do the same for Soto, one of the best free agents in baseball history who could command a contract worth more (in present day dollars) than Shohei Ohtani last offseason.

After all, it’s rare that a player of Soto’s caliber reaches free agency. Soto, 26, will be a Hall of Famer when his career ends. But he’s just entering the prime of his career, has extensive postseason experience, and is coming off the best season of his career: .288/.419/.569 with 41 home runs and 109 RBI while posting a 178 OPS+. In his career, he’s hitting .285/.421/.532 with 201 home runs and 592 RBI while posting a 160 OPS+.

But it’s not just Soto who could hold up the market. On the pitching side, Roki Sasaki could have a similar impact.

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Roki Sasaki will stall the MLB free agency market along with Juan Soto

Now, it’s unclear when Sasaki will be posted and whether he’ll be in the international class of 2024 or 2025. Had Sasaki waited to be posted, it’s entirely possible he could have signed a deal similar to, or worth more, than Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12-year, $325 million contract. But Sasaki, who scouts view as a high-end rotation arm, can now only sign a minor-league contract.

Which should create a league-wide chase to sign Sasaki. That could stall the markets for the elite free-agent options such as Max Fried, Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell, while potentially impacting the mid-level markets for free agents such as Nathan Eovaldi and Jack Flaherty, among others. But Sasaki, who posted a 2.10 ERA and 505 strikeouts in 394.2 innings, will be perhaps the most coveted player on the market.

One thing that should make this offseason different than last offseason: the sheer talent available in free agency. There are far more options available for teams to choose from, and it’s led to early deals (Jorge Soler, Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Newman to the Angels; Justin Wilson to the Red Sox). 

There should be movement between now and the Winter Meetings in early December. But it may take awhile for the elite free agents, especially Soto, to find long-term homes. Which could lead to another frustrating start to the offseason.