MLB fans, we made it. We endured another long and treacherous offseason, and have made it to Opening Day. The baseball games we will see from now until October and potentially November will count. With that in mind, it's time to make some predictions.
I can sit here and say that the Los Angeles Dodgers will win the NL West. I can sit here and say that the Chicago White Sox won't make the postseason. I can even sit here and say Shohei Ohtani will win yet another MVP award. These predictions aren't fun to make, though, because they're obvious.
The bold predictions you're about to see below probably won't happen, but there's a chance that one or many of them do. Some are admittedly out there, but what's life without a little risk?
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AL East bold prediction: All five teams finish at or above .500
The AL East is by far the hardest division to read in the league. I can see an argument for any of the five teams in the division to win somewhere between 75 and 90 games. I don't think any of the five teams in this division are truly elite, but I don't think any of them are bad, either.
The AL East saw two teams, the New York Yankees and the Baltimore Orioles, make the postseason in 2024. I don't think it's a hot take to suggest that both of these teams are substantially worse on paper than they were in 2024. Not only did the Yankees lose Juan Soto to the New York Mets, but they're without Luis Gil for several months, Gerrit Cole for the season, and Giancarlo Stanton for who knows how long. This team can and probably will still be good, but how good can they realistically be without so much star power? As for the Orioles, have you seen their rotation? That's about all that needs to be said about them.
While the Yankees and Orioles got worse, the other teams in this division got better. Two of them even got substantially better.
The Boston Red Sox were one of the biggest winners of the offseason, trading for Garrett Crochet and signing both Alex Bregman and Walker Buehler. After several years of mediocrity, it would not be shocking to see them enter World Series contention this season. The Toronto Blue Jays didn't sign a superstar, but they dramatically improved their bullpen and added some much-needed power to their lineup in addition to adding Max Scherzer to an already solid rotation.
As for the Rays, they aren't much better than they were in 2024, but they already won 80 games last season. They'll get a full season of Junior Caminero, got good news about Shane McClanahan, and have an extremely talented bullpen. The Rays are also the Rays - they'll be fine.
Four of the five teams in this division won at least 80 games last season. The only team that didn't, the Blue Jays, won 74 games in a year that saw them catch several bad breaks, and added a slew of impactful players over the offseason to their roster. This division does not have a single terrible team in it, and that'll show in the end-of-season standings.
AL Central bold prediction: Royals win the division by 10+ games
Four AL Central teams finished above the .500 mark last season, and three of them made the postseason. It was a nice breath of fresh air to see the AL Central, a division that has mostly been non-competitive in recent years, have four teams seemingly trying to win, but that will revert back to the norm in 2025 with the Kansas City Royals taking the crown by at least 10 games.
The Kansas City Royals have the best player in the division by far, Bobby Witt Jr., and plugged a couple of major holes they had over the offseason. Kansas City did not have an established leadoff hitter to hit in front of Witt, and they solved that by trading for Jonathan India. The Reds didn't seem to want him, for whatever reason, but India and his high-end on-base ability will fit in nicely in Kansas City. The Royals also needed to bolster their bullpen, and did so by signing Carlos Estevez.
This lineup, led by the likes of Witt, India, Vinnie Pasquantino, and the ageless wonder that is Salvador Perez is awesome at the top. This rotation, led by the most underrated dynamic duo in the sport consisting of Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo, should flourish. The bullpen, as mentioned above, is much better as well. This Royals team is good, but the reason I have them winning the division in such commanding fashion has to do with the other teams.
Fresh off a 92-win season, the Cleveland Guardians managed to shed payroll, but did so at the cost of getting better. Their rotation took hits with Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb signing elsewhere. The Guardians hope younger arms like Luis Ortiz and Logan Allen can replace them. Their lineup took hits with Josh Naylor and Andres Gimenez getting traded away. They'll be replaced by 38-year-old Carlos Santana and Gabriel Arias (maybe?). Even their bullpen got a little bit worse with Nick Sandlin and Eli Morgan getting traded away. The Guardians often find ways to stay competitive, but I just don't see it.
The Detroit Tigers were the other AL Central team that made it to the postseason in 2024. They caught lightning in a bottle down the stretch and carried their momentum into October, but for most of the 2024 campaign, this was an average baseball team. I mean, they traded Jack Flaherty at the trade deadline for a reason. They tried to get better by signing Alex Bregman, but the best player they added to a lineup that was tied for 19th in runs scored was Gleyber Torres. Their rotation is awesome, and I love Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter, but it wouldn't be surprising to see this team take a step back in 2025.
The Minnesota Twins were competitive in 2024, but they already have Royce Lewis on the IL and have too many injury questions to deal with, in addition to their uneventful offseason. As for the White Sox, well, they're there too, I guess.
The Royals are far from perfect, but the other teams in this division are uninspiring, making their path to a division title relatively easy to spot.
AL West bold prediction: Astros are the only team in the division to make the postseason
Several AL West teams have been getting a good amount of hype entering the 2025 season. The Texas Rangers might bounce back with a healthy Jacob deGrom and a really good lineup. The Seattle Mariners have the best rotation in the sport. The Athletics could be a sneaky Wild Card contender thanks to how they finished. I'm not really buying any of that.
deGrom can stay healthy, and as a Mets fan, I'd love nothing more than to watch him pitch every fifth day and bolster his Cooperstown case by winning another Cy Young award - I just have no reason to believe it'll happen. Yeah, the Mariners have an excellent rotation, but have you seen that lineup? Poor Julio Rodriguez. The Athletics are fun, but I'm not buying a rotation led by Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs as one capable of leading a team to the postseason. The Houston Astros, however, are probably better than given credit for.
Yes, they lost Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, but their lineup is still incredibly deep. Defense in the outfield could be a problem with Jose Altuve and Cam Smith slated to play there regularly, but both of these players should mash. As should the likes of Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Isaac Paredes, and Yainer Diaz. Their rotation is quite good with Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown leading the way, and Josh Hader is still there to close games.
Last season ended poorly, and it'd be nice to have Tucker and/or Bregman in town, but this Astros team should still be very good. I'd love for their dynasty to be over, but it just doesn't feel as if it is quite yet.
NL East bold prediction: This division will have the teams with the best AND worst records in the league
An argument can be made that the NL East has three of the five best teams in the league on paper. The Philadelphia Phillies won 95 games last season and are essentially running things back. The New York Mets made a shocking run to the NLCS and added Juan Soto. The Atlanta Braves won 89 games despite having some of the worst injury luck I've ever seen.
That Braves team is who I predict will finish with the best record not only in this division, but in all of baseball. As mentioned above, I am a Mets fan, but the facts are the facts. This Braves team dealt with injury woes no team could compare to, and still found a way to win 89 games. I'm not here to say they'll have a perfect health season. Sean Murphy is already hurt, in fact. I will say, though, that players will have better injury luck than they did in 2024, making them already better.
In addition to the injuries, virtually every Braves regular outside of Marcell Ozuna had down years. I'm not going to say they'll all bounce back, but let's say half of them do - this offense will then be much better. It's just hard to find a hole on this Braves team. Their lineup is as deep as any, their rotation might be the best in the game when healthy, and their bullpen is good, too. If they were able to win 89 games with everything that went wrong last year, I expect them to win 10-15 more with better luck. Oh yeah, they added Jurickson Profar too.
As for the worst team in the league, that would be the Miami Marlins. It might not be a hot take to expect this team to be bad, but it feels like a hot take to suggest they'll be worse than the team that just had the worst record in modern MLB history and traded away its best player. Sandy Alcantara is back, and that's great, but who's their second-best pitcher right now, Max Meyer? Who's their best hitter other than Xavier Edwards, Jonah Bride? There simply is nothing to like about this Marlins team, and I'd genuinely be shocked if they won 60 games.
NL Central bold prediction: Reds win first division title since 2012
It's been a while since the Cincinnati Reds were relevant, but that can change in 2025. The Chicago Cubs are probably favored to win the NL Central, but that was the case last season as well and they still fell short. The Milwaukee Brewers always find a way to be good, but they did just lose Willy Adames and Devin Williams. The Pittsburgh Pirates have a dominant rotation, but that lineup is ugly. The St. Louis Cardinals have talent, but based on how they approached the offseason, they aren't all-in on winning right now.
That leaves the Reds, and I'm bullish when it comes to their NL Central odds. Elly De La Cruz might be the most exciting player to watch in the game, and he should only get better. Matt McLain and Christian Encarnacion-Strand (remember the name) are healthy. Playing at Great American Ballpark half the time should help their offense take a major step forward as well.
On the pitching side, this rotation is fun and solid. Hunter Greene is a dynamic ace, Nick Lodolo has a high ceiling, Brady Singer was rock-solid for Kansas City last year and should thrive by keeping the ball on the ground, and we can't forget about Nick Martinez either, who finished last season very strongly (2.42 ERA in his last 11 starts).
I probably wouldn't pick the Reds to win any other division, but the NL Central is so winnable. With the star power that they have, I would not be surprised at all to see them win their first division title in over a decade.
NL West bold prediction: Diamondbacks hang around in division race until the last week of the season
It's hard to come up with anything that is bold and somewhat realistic in a division that includes the Los Angeles Dodgers. I'm not going to say that the Arizona Diamondbacks are going to overtake the powerful Dodgers and win the NL West, but I do truly believe that they make this division race more interesting than many expect it to be. It could come down to the last week of the regular season, and it just so happens that these two teams play each other then.
The Dodgers are my pick to win the division, but there's a lot to like with this Diamondbacks team.
Arizona scored more runs than any team in the majors last season, and that was with Corbin Carroll, arguably their most dynamic player, being a relative non-factor in the first half. They lost Christian Walker, but replaced him with Josh Naylor. They lost Joc Pederson, but his replacement, Pavin Smith, has some potential. This lineup should be among the league's best once again, and the pitching is improved in a major way.
The Diamondbacks, seemingly out of nowhere, signed the best pitcher available, Corbin Burnes, to a six-year contract. Arizona's rotation was a weakness last season, but on paper, should be excellent in 2025 with Burnes and Zac Gallen leading the way.
The Dodgers, obviously, are going to be really good. This prediction is more about how good the Diamondbacks will be. Arizona sticking with the Dodgers will make the NL West more interesting than otherwise expected.