Juan Soto Rumors: Predicting the two mystery teams trying to crash the party

We're now into mid-November. GM Meetings have come and gone, and trades and signings have slowly started to trickle in. The MLB offseason is fully up and running, and this year that can only mean one thing: Juan Soto Watch is officially on.

Soto is the first domino to fall this winter, a 26-year-old superstar who all the game's biggest spenders hope to sign to a contract that will likely shatter records once the ink is dry. And it seems like the baseball world won't have to wait too long to make a decision: Soto and his agent, Scott Boras, are set to host teams for individual meetings in Southern California starting at some point next week, with Soto expected to sign not too long after.

At this point, we have a pretty good idea of just who those teams will be. The New York Yankees and York Mets have already been confirmed, and the New York Post's Jon Heyman reports that the Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants and Toronto Blue Jays have been added to the list. But Heyman also added another tidbit that caught everyone's eye, claiming that Soto and Boras will also host two other “mystery” teams, one of which is believed to be from a smaller market.

That's right, it's mystery team season once again. Sometimes this is just a negotiating tactic, a way for an agent to drive the bidding for his client even higher. But sometimes the mystery team gets the last laugh after all, which means Heyman's report is worth taking seriously. Just who might those two other suitors for Soto's services be? Let's investigate.

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Ruling out potential mystery teams for Juan Soto

We can eliminate a good number of teams off the bat. The White Sox, Angels, Athletics, Marlins and Rockies are all a hard no simply for competitive reasons. The Reds, Pirates and Twins almost certainly don't have the money right now. The Rangers have plenty of other needs to fill and are reportedly looking to shed payroll, the Cardinals are selling rather than buying, the Cubs more or less already ruled themselves out days ago, the Diamondbacks have their corner outfield spots spoken for, the Braves seem to have their sights set elsewhere and the Padres just traded Soto away last winter.

So that leaves us with the following options: the Orioles, Rays, Guardians, Royals, Tigers, Astros, Mariners, Phillies, Nationals and Brewers. The Astros have their own right fielder to lock up long-term, so we can remove them. Milwaukee and Baltimore both have plenty of young outfield talent, which would seem to suggest that their limited free-agent dollars would be better used in other areas. The Guardians, Royals and Mariners are all fits to varying degrees, but we simply don't have any evidence that they're willing to swim in these financial waters. The biggest contract any of the four have handed out, the 14-year mega-extension the Royals gave to Bobby Witt Jr., is less than half of what Soto is expected to get this winter.

Suddenly, we've narrowed ourselves down quite a bit. The Rays, Tigers, Phillies and Nationals remain, conveniently a list that includes both big- and small-market teams. Which two feel most likely? I'm tempted to give the Rays real consideration — don't forget that they offered very competitive money to Freddie Freeman a few years back — but it feels a bit rich for their blood, and a hard sell for Soto given the current relocation rumors and moribund fan base. Scott Boras loves to bend the ear of Washington owner Mark Lerner, and the Nats do seem to be about ready to kickstart a new era of contention, but it's hard to see Soto heading back to the team whose extension offer he spurned. And then there were two.

Juan Soto mystery team No. 1: The Philadelphia Phillies

This wouldn't be a total mystery, given how much speculation there's been around the Phillies' potential pursuit of Soto this offseason. But we've yet to have any of that speculation confirmed, and so they qualify as a mystery team nonetheless.

And the math adds up. This team needs a jolt after another postseason flameout, and it just so happens that two current corner outfielders, Nick Castellanos and Brandon Marsh, have been floated as potential trade candidates, in addition to third baseman Alec Bohm. Given Philly's current financial and roster logjam, it makes sense that Dave Dombrowski would want to keep a channel open with Boras while not wanting too much to get leaked to the media; the last thing the Phillies want is for Soto to go elsewhere after Castellanos' name has been dragged through the rumor mill.

And it also makes sense that a team with this much starting pitching, an apparent desire for a more contact-oriented approach and one of the most aggressive lead executives in the game would be in on the bidding here. It's not the most likely destination, but it's hard to believe that Dombrowski isn't at least seriously considering it.

Juan Soto mystery team No. 2: The Detroit Tigers

That brings us to our small-market mystery team. The Tigers are young and ascending, coming within one game of facing Soto's Yankees in the ALCS this season. They also seem ready to spend: Detroit owner Chris Ilitch inherited the team upon the passing of his father Mike, who never shied away from shelling out big bucks to bring players to the Motor City when his team was ready to contend.

Ilitch has been open about his desire to follow in his dad's footsteps, and now is the time to strike. The Tigers have a gaping hole in left field moving forward, with Parker Meadows in center, Riley Greene in right and Kerry Carpenter better suited for DH duties. The AL Central is very much there for the taking, and Tarik Skubal anchors a pitching staff that projects to take a big leap forward next season. This is exactly the sort of team that might butt into the conversation, and exactly the kind of owner that Boras wants to use for leverage.