Sure sounds like Nolan Arenado's message to Cardinals is limiting his trade market

With Juan Soto finally off the board, the MLB offseason is expected to pick up steam any second. While several prominent free agents remain, the trade market is sure to be robust as well. Guys like Garrett Crochet, Luis Robert, and Devin Williams have been floated around trade rumors, but perhaps nobody on the block feels more likely to go than Nolan Arenado. I mean, John Mozeliak was practically begging for a team to take him.

Arenado is open to a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals looking to reset, but given the fact that he has a full no-trade clause, it's entirely in his hands as to whether he gets traded or not and where he ends up. With that in mind, his agent, Joel Wolfe, made it clear that the 33-year-old's main priority is to join a contender.

Limiting options to just teams he views to be contenders already makes it tougher to move Arenado. The fact that one contender he'd surely approve a deal to join - the Los Angeles Dodgers - don't appear to be a fit for Arenado according to Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (subscription required) makes it an even bigger challenge.

"But with the St. Louis Cardinals looking to trade All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado, don’t expect the Dodgers to be in play. League sources strongly indicated to The Athletic that a deal for Arenado is not a possibility the organization has considered. And Dodgers general manager Brandon Gomes said on the record Monday that Max Muncy would be the team’s third baseman on Opening Day," Ardaya wrote.

Things can change, but Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes made it pretty clear that Max Muncy will be the team's Opening Day third baseman. Arenado has expressed a willingness to move to first base for the right team, but Freddie Freeman plays there. Muncy can play second base to make room for Arenado, but it sounds as if that isn't being considered. For all intents and purposes, the Dodgers are out until further notice, which is surely a bummer for Arenado - a Southern California native.

If it's not the Dodgers, where exactly will Arenado go?

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Nolan Arenado's desire to win might prevent him from being traded at all

Had Arenado been on the block one or two offseasons ago, virtually all 30 teams would have expressed interest in some capacity. Just three seasons ago, he was an NL MVP finalist. Now, he's coming off arguably his worst season and is owed a ton of money over the next three seasons.

Sure, Arenado is still an elite defender even if he isn't the Platinum Glover he once was, but his bat has really slowed down. This past season, he slashed .272/.325/.394 with 16 home runs and 71 RBI in 152 games played. This player, who used to hit 40 home runs annually, has gone deep just 23 times since the start of the second half of the 2023 season. He's still a decent offensive player, but the decline is very real - and that makes it hard to justify paying close to what he's set to make.

We've seen some rumors here and there connecting Arenado to the New York Yankees, but he doesn't appear to be a priority to the Bronx Bombers. Other than those, which teams have expressed interest? The Boston Red Sox might make sense if they want to move Rafael Devers to first base and trade Triston Casas, but would acquiring Arenado make Boston better than they are? Could the Toronto Blue Jays make a run if they strike out elsewhere? Maybe, but are they viewed as a true contender by Arenado?

Arenado's lackluster play, especially this past season, makes trading him difficult by itself. The fact that he's only interested in a contender, lessens his already narrow market. The biggest contender of all not expressing interest makes a tough challenge for Mozeliak that much more difficult. Finding a deal that works for both Arenado and the Cardinals is easier said than done.