Latest Nolan Arenado trade destination comes with major catch for Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals are officially embracing a youth movement as Chaim Bloom prepares to take over the front office in 2026. After back-to-back disappointing finishes, John Mozeliak is set to spend his final season at the helm selling off St. Louis' best players. Paul Goldschmidt isn't expected to return in free agency, while names like Sonny Gray and Nolan Arenado are hot in trade rumors.

Arenado is an especially intriguing trade candidate at third base. He's undeniably a positive-impact player, but at 33 years old, the signs of decline are plain as day. Arenado has seen his slugging plummet in each of the past two seasons and he's coming off his worst OPS (.719) campaign since he was a rookie.

He led the MLB in WAR (7.7) in 2022. Last season, that number landed at 2.4 for Arenado, whose primary value has shifted from explosive offense to razor-sharp defense. He's still one of the best defenders in the MLB at the hot corner — a 10-time Gold Glove winner, folks — but that only gets you so far if the bat isn't popping.

The Cardinals would love to move off of Arenado, but his contract, worth $74 million over the next three years, is a potential holdup. Teams just aren't interested in absorbing that kind of money for a player on such a steep regression arc.

And yet, according to Jim Bowden of The Athletic, the Philadelphia Phillies "could have interest" in the eight-time All-Star. But, as always, there's a catch.

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Phillies could take Nolan Arenado off of Cardinals' hands, but with a catch

"I’ve heard the rumors [Philadelphia] could have interest in getting Arenado from the Cardinals and I do think playing at Citizens Bank Park would help him, but St. Louis would need to absorb a lot of his contract," writes Bowden.

Arenado would make a great deal of sense as a potential Alec Bohm replacement in Philadelphia, but there's simply no way this trade crosses the finish line unless St. Louis absorbs the majority of Arenado's remaining contract. The Phillies are already weary of their sky-high tax bill and Arenado's recent decline dampens expectations rather significantly.

He's an undeniably major talent, but the Phillies can't exactly count on Arenado to outperform Bohm, who finished with a higher WAR (3.0) and far better hitting splits, on the offensive end. The defensive upgrade is pronounced, but as Arenado ages, that aspect of his game will inevitably decline too.

A more hitter-friendly ballpark could help Arenado get back on track, not to mention the insulation of Philadelphia's elite offense, but there's too much risk associated with paying him any real money. Philadelphia would need to trade Bohm with their sights set on another major addition — Garrett Crochet, Willy Adames, etc. — and then tack on Arenado as a second-priority investment. Arenado can't be (and odds are, isn't) Philadelphia's primary offseason target.

So, there's a chance for St. Louis to get off of Arenado and potentially recoup fringe prospect value, but the Cards aren't getting out of that contract. That might not matter much for Mozeliak and Bloom considering St. Louis' expected patience during this rebuild, but fans shouldn't get their hopes up about shedding Arenado's salary.