Orioles losing Corbin Burnes could lead to sad reunion with former bust

The Baltimore Orioles went into the offseason with a pretty clear mandate to improve. New ownership has equipped Mike Elias and the front office with more spending power than ever before. That does not necessarily mean Baltimore is a shoo-in for top free agents, however, as we have learned quickly.

It would appear that Baltimore is still operating in a different tax bracket than the New Yorks and Los Angeles' of the world. Such is life. We have seen the O's make a couple solid positional upgrades with Tyler O'Neill and Gary Sanchez, but the pitching staff remains largely untouched. That is a problem.

The biggest fish left in the free agent pond after Juan Soto's signing is Corbin Burnes. We know the O's would welcome him back with open arms, but the market for starting pitchers has exploded to ungodly heights. Max Fried recently received eight years and $218 million from the Yankees, which means Baltimore's AL East rivals — Boston and Toronto — are both in scramble mode.

As luck would have it, Boston and Toronto seem like two of the most probable destinations for Burnes, whose contract ought to exceed Fried's in annual value, maybe even length.

Should Burnes leave, the options are few and far between for Baltimore. Garrett Crochet, Max Fried, and Blake Snell are off the board. There are a couple intriguing trade options, like Dylan Cease or Jared Jones, but none provide the stability of Burnes, who has finished top-10 in Cy Young voting in five straight seasons.

Their backup plan could come in the form of a familiar face.

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Orioles could seek Jack Flaherty reunion if Corbin Burnes signs elsewhere

Jack Flaherty is "one fallback option" if the Orioles fail to re-sign Burnes, which is the leaguewide expectation, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. He also notes Boston as a potential landing spot, so again, the O's are facing stiff competition from within their own division.

The idea of Flaherty as Baltimore's Burnes pivot is fine on paper — but utterly alarming for Orioles fans who did not enjoy Flaherty's first go-around in Baltimore. The O's acquired Flaherty at the 2023 trade deadline, only to watch him post a 6.75 ERA across nine appearances and flame out in October.

For an O's team with offensive talent coming out of the woodwork thanks to a deep farm system, pitching is the primary focal point this winter. Baltimore just needs stability on the mound to take the next step. Burnes was a huge boon in that respect, so losing him is going to sting like hell. Replacing him with somebody who wasn't up to snuff as a top-line starter his last time around stings even worse.

Rosenthal notes, however, that Baltimore officials believe Flaherty was "worn out" when the O's traded for him last time, having pitched 109.1 innings in 2023 prior to the trade deadline. He pitched 154.2 innings combined over the previous three seasons due to injury. So, yeah, Flaherty was stretched a little thin.

The 2024 campaign was a much more promising display from Flaherty, who held a patchwork Dodgers staff together after another trade deadline relocation. He finished the campaign with a 3.17 ERA across 28 starts and 162.0 innings. Even more encouragingly, Flaherty was rock-solid in the postseason. He won the World Series. That is gospel in MLB circles.

So, the O's shouldn't be too worried about Flaherty's ability to perform in Baltimore. It's not like Camden Yards is cursed ground for the 29-year-old.

Even so, the vibes are not great, and Flaherty pales in comparison to Burnes. Don't count on a victory lap from Baltimore fans if this is how the offseason plays out.