Vlad Guerrero Jr.'s reaction to Juan Soto signing tells Toronto he's as good as gone

For the second straight offseason, the Toronto Blue Jays have come up empty in their pursuit of a historic free agent, watching Juan Soto head to the New York Mets on a 15-year, $765 million deal on Sunday night — nearly one year to the day that Shohei Ohtani jilted the Jays to sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers. And this whiff might be even more painful than last winter's: Coming off a last-place finish in 2024, with Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s futures up in the air, Toronto desperately needed a splash to change the franchise's trajectory.

Soto was their last, best chance at finding one, and with the star outfielder off the board, the Jays might have to ask some very tough questions. Ross Atkins and Co. seemed hell-bent on trying to contend in their final year with Bichette and Guerrero Jr. under team control. Now, though, contention seems like a pipe dream, raising questions about whether either of Toronto will be able to sign either of its two foundational stars to an extension.

And if Guerrero Jr.'s response to Soto's megadeal is any indication, those questions are about to get a whole lot louder.

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Vlad Guerrero Jr. has sights set on free agency after Juan Soto signing

Guerrero Jr. has been largely quiet since the end of the 2024 season. We don't know how he feels about Toronto's current direction, or how he feels about remaining with the Jays for the long haul. The first baseman's Instagram story from late Sunday night, however, spoke volumes: Along with a photo announcing Soto's contract, Guerrero Jr. wrote "Blessings my brother, well deserved," along with several mindblown emojis.

Which can't be what Atkins wants to hear right now. Guerrero Jr. isn't the same caliber of player as Soto; he plays a less valuable position and has a less consistent track record of production. But he is coming off a 30-homer season in which he put up a 166 OPS+, and like Soto, he's poised to become a free agent at the unusually young age of 26. It's unlikely that his market would reach such stratospheric heights, but it's rare for a hitter that good to become available smack in the middle of his prime, and you better believe that Guerrero Jr. is paying attention to the contract his friend just got after betting on himself and turning down a massive extension with the Washington Nationals.

If the Jays had any hope of hanging on to Guerrero Jr. in 2025 and beyond, it hinged on doing enough this offseason to convince him to forgo free agency and sign an extension before the start of the season. That's out the window now, not just because Toronto whiffed on its biggest chance to upgrade its roster but also because Vladdy just got an illustration of how much he might be worth in 12 months time. Atkins has been loath to even acknowledge the possibility of a rebuild, but at this rate, trading his young star may be unavoidable.